Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥� The Russian Navy has no Improved Kilo鈥揷lass submarines left in the Mediterranean Sea after the Assad regime鈥檚 fall from power in Syria.
鈥� Russia is advancing in Ukraine, particularly in Kurakhove and Toretsk.
鈥� Ukrainian forces are making a tactical push in Kursk, likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage.
鈥� Ukraine scored the first confirmed naval unmanned-on-manned aerial kill in military history.
1. Assad鈥檚 Fall Disrupts Russian Submarine Deployments in the Mediterranean
Bashar al-Assad鈥檚 fall from power in Syria marks another setback for Russia鈥檚 overseas military posture. After the regime鈥檚 collapse, the Russian Navy鈥檚 last Improved Kilo鈥揷lass submarine in the Mediterranean Sea departed the Soviet-remnant Tartous naval base. On January 2, the Portuguese Navy sailing through Gibraltar en route to the Baltics.
Since 2013 the Russian Black Sea Fleet has its Improved Kilos to the Tartous base. In 2015 Russian Kalibr naval cruise missiles at targets in Syria, a milestone for Moscow鈥檚 nonnuclear long-range strike prowess. And in 2017 Jens Stoltenberg, then the North Atlantic Treaty Organization鈥檚 secretary general, warned that Russian submarine activity in the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean was at its highest level .
The Black Sea Fleet has six Improved Kilo鈥揷lass submarines, the Black Sea. The Ukrainian military has repeatedly struck and disabled one, the Rostov-on-Don, with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Along with the Novorossiysk, the Krasnodar is forward deployed to the Baltic Sea.
This leaves Russia with only three operational Improved Kilos in the Black Sea and none in the Mediterranean, jeopardizing the Kremlin鈥檚 ability to project power. Russia鈥檚 Tartous and Khmmeimim bases functioned as staging points for Russian combat operations in Syria and logistical hubs for Moscow鈥檚 geopolitical ambitions in Africa.
2. Ukraine鈥檚 155th Mechanized Brigade Demonstrates Ukraine鈥檚 Force Generation Struggles
The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation is investigating elements of Kyiv鈥檚 French-trained 155th Mechanized Brigade for going absent without official leave (AWOL) or deserting the force. The press reported that the missing elements were deployed to the heavily reinforced yet beleaguered Pokrovsk theater.
Nicknamed 鈥淎nne of Kyiv鈥� after a Kyivan Rus princess who became queen of France after marrying King Henry I, is a vital demonstration of Europe鈥檚 commitment to Ukraine鈥檚 defense. is armed with French AMX-10 armored fighting vehicles and CAESAR howitzers, as well as German Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks. It is part of a NATO project whereby alliance members train and equip individual Ukrainian combat formations.
The Ukrainian military鈥檚 force generation strategy of building new combat brigades rather than reinforcing existing ones has among observers. Many wonder whether inexperienced leaders can ensure unit cohesion, discipline, and warfighting capability against mounting Russian pressure.
3. Battlefield Assessment
The crucial Kharkiv front has remained relatively calm. But looks grim for Ukrainian defensive operations in Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. Russian forces have advanced steadily, particularly in Toretsk.
Kurakhove has been hanging in the balance, with about whether the Russian military has seized the town. Current force-on-force and force-to-terrain ratios and Ukraine鈥檚 lack of solid defensive positions suggest that Kurakhove will soon fall.
In Kursk, Ukrainian forces have to capture more Russian territory. Ukraine likely hopes to reverse the momentum on this front and strengthen its position in potential ceasefire talks under the incoming second Trump administration.
4. Drone Warfare Update
In a significant drone warfare development, Ukraine scored the first confirmed naval unmanned-on-manned aerial kill in . Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (GUR) shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter with a Magura V5 unmanned surface vehicle in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Ukraine鈥檚 heavy electronic warfare activity has been effective against Russian in Kursk. In response, Russia continues to deploy drones .