Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥� Russian forces continued to press on multiple fronts, while Ukraine finally received its first F-16 fighter aircraft.
鈥� Ukraine reportedly sunk the Rostov-on-Don, a Russian Improved Kilo鈥揷lass submarine, in the port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea.
鈥� Ukraine attacked a critical Russian airbase with loitering munitions, again showcasing its deep-strike capabilities.
鈥� Russia reportedly received anti-tank missile vehicles from North Korea and continues to devise new anti-drone technologies.
1. Battlefield Assessment
The military situation in Ukraine remains tense, and two flashpoints merit particular attention. In the direction of Pokrovsk, the Russian offensive has intensified, and Ukraine鈥檚 lines of defense may break if Moscow sustains its highly attritional operational tempo. In Kharkiv, the Russian military has been sending in reinforcements, tilting the balance of power toward the Kremlin. According to recent , July saw a decrease over the two prior months in the number of Russian servicemen killed in action. This downward trend might indicate that Russia has been consolidating its positions to increase pressure on the front lines.
Moscow continued its push on multiple other fronts as well. Vovchansk and Tykhe critical hotspots for Russia鈥檚 ongoing offensive on Kharkiv. In the direction of Kupiansk, Russian forces pushed for Stelmakhivka, though they made no confirmed territorial gains. Elsewhere, the Kremlin鈥檚 heavy pressure yielded on some fronts, including near Siversk, Vesele, and Chasiv Yar.
Notably, combat formations from pro-Russian, separatist regions of the Ukrainian oblast of Luhansk participated in offensive action near , while in southern Ukraine, Russian forces maintained pressure on multiple targets, Robotyne. Ukraine鈥檚 position near Pokrovsk also continued to deteriorate, with some reports indicating that Russia鈥檚 rapid advance there has led to a in Ukraine鈥檚 lines of defense.
Evidence suggests that Moscow is considering to the Pokrovsk region by transferring all available reserves in occupied areas. The Kremlin also reportedly has devoted some of its best troops, from the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), to breaking bottlenecks on critical fronts.
Open-source evidence suggests that Russia is additional forces in several places, most notably on the Kharkiv front. Assessments indicate that Moscow its ground offensive with aerial strikes.
Last week, Kyiv continued long-range strikes on , oil infrastructure, and other military and strategic facilities. Attempting to curtail Russia鈥檚 aerial attacks, Ukraine an aviation ammunition depot and a base of the Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense in . In another incident, Ukrainian forces conducted a attack that caused multiple fires on the Morozovsk air base, an airfield that hosts Su-34 fighter-bombers and Su-30 and Su-35 fighter jets, platforms that play an active role in Russia鈥檚 offensive in Ukraine. An assessment of open-source imagery confirms that Ukrainian forces damaged .
Moreover, Ukraine hit and a Russian Improved Kilo鈥揷lass submarine, the Rostov-on-Don, in the port of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian military had previously used Storm Shadow missiles to hit the Kalibr-capable attack submarine, from which Moscow has launched cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
A Forbes analysis also revealed that Ukraine almost 100 more attack drones in July than Russia, deploying 520 drones to Moscow鈥檚 426. This helps illustrate why the West should lift restrictions on the long-range weapons it has been transferring to Kyiv, as the Russian rear remains vulnerable to the Ukrainian military鈥檚 deep strikes.
Finally, the first deliveries of F-16 combat aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force are promising news for Kyiv. Official sources suggest that the first batch of the are finally flying in Ukrainian skies. With timely military assistance and operational support, the aircraft will provide a needed boost to Kyiv.
Nonetheless, the F-16, a textbook fourth-generation tactical military aviation platform, has a limited ceiling. It does not possess stealth features or fifth-generation sensor fusion, which makes it vulnerable to Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems and fighter aircraft. Thus, while the F-16s herald Ukraine鈥檚 transition to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) aviation systems, they do not solve all of Kyiv鈥檚 problems.
2. Russia Is Receiving Anti-tank Missile Vehicles from North Korea
Russia and North Korea鈥檚 recent signing of a defense pact and subsequent staging of high-level bilateral meetings are starting to bear fruit for Moscow, as open-source intelligence suggests that Pyongyang recently sent Bulsae-4 anti-tank missile vehicles to bolster Russia鈥檚 war effort.
from the battlefield indicates that the North Korean tank destroyer was first spotted in Russia across the border from the Ukrainian city of Vovchansk, but has not yet been combat deployed in Ukraine. The Bulsae-4 is a non-line-of-sight (NLOS) missile vehicle, a platform that can strike targets without a direct line of sight. The vehicle features eight mounted on the chassis of the North Korean M-2010 wheeled armored personnel carrier, which is derived from the Soviet BTR-80.
Because of , Ukrainian officials have about declaring whether the vehicle is yet in the Kremlin鈥檚 possession. If confirmed, the transfer would suggest that Russian combat formations may possess other heavy armor from Pyongyang. Thus far, North Korea has provided Russia with 152mm-class artillery shells and 122mm-class rockets, along with tactical ballistic missiles similar to the Russian SS-26 Iskander. At a time of high-tempo combat operations, North Korea remains a crucial supplier of Russia鈥檚 armed forces.
3. In an Increasingly Digitalized War, Both Belligerents Mine Emerging Technologies
For many months, Russian electronic warfare activity, including extensive jamming and suppression of the Global Positioning System (GPS), has vexed Ukraine and operations along NATO鈥檚 eastern edge. Now, Kyiv is responding by amping up its cyber and electronic warfare efforts. In July, the Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) reportedly conducted a large-scale, nationwide cyberattack against Russia鈥檚 financial institutions and critical national infrastructure.
On the Russian side, new Kremlin Defense Minister Andrey Belousov鈥檚 technology-focused approach has pushed Russian arms manufacturers to scale up their robotic warfare and drone production efforts. Recent reporting in the Russian state-owned news agency RIA claimed that Moscow can produce drones per day. This would provide Russia with approximately 1.4 million drones per year, around half of Ukraine鈥檚 reported production of FPV drones, although Kyiv鈥檚 numbers depend on Western support.
More worrisome than the volume of Russia鈥檚 drone production is the quality of its munitions. The Kremlin鈥檚 defense technological and industrial base is now devising dangerous solutions explicitly for , many of which are at Ukraine鈥檚 Baba Yaga night-bomber hexacopter drones. Russia鈥檚 achievements in drone-on-drone warfare threaten not only Ukraine but could, in a broader future conflict, pose problems for NATO.