This year鈥檚 Munich Security Conference is an unusually consequential one since it begins as the Trump administration turns its attention to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Even as Trump鈥檚 discusses terms with Ukrainians and Russians, and occasionally updates the other Europeans, the Middle East is watching to see if the ceasefire deal in Gaza will hold.
To many in Washington, the teetering Gaza deal is both a potential humanitarian catastrophe and a sign of Trumpian incompetence. Donald Trump鈥檚 threats and that Hamas honor the agreement seem like hamfisted amateurism to the Beltway鈥檚 mandarins and their overseas friends. That is because Trump鈥檚 view of how diplomacy works is fundamentally different from how they think.
For progressives and their allies, diplomacy is mostly about fostering good feelings. They tend to hope that the process of negotiating will create trust and hopefully goodwill that should improve the overall relationship between the countries involved. In this view, having something to sign is more important than driving a hard bargain that protects American interests. Withdrawing from any deal is a terrible misstep, even if staying in accomplishes nothing or if the other side is violating the terms.
That is not how Trump views things at all. He thinks that the United States is bound by agreements only to the extent that the other side complies鈥攁nd even then, he reserves the right to pull out when he finds it advantageous. The ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas only exists because of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz鈥檚 that if Hamas cheated on the deal, the United States would not force Israel to continue complying. Joe Biden tried for months to get a similar deal, but he could not credibly make the same offer to Jerusalem and thus failed.
So when Hamas to stop releasing its hostages on schedule, Trump responded, "If all of the hostages aren鈥檛 returned by Saturday at 12 o鈥檆lock 鈥� I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out." Hamas seems to have 鈥攁fter hitting Gaza with another rocket.
Trump wants a deal with Vladimir Putin, and his 2018 summit in Helsinki dismayed the Americans who had been on the receiving end of Putin鈥檚 misdeeds. But Putin鈥檚 best offer was unacceptable to Trump, who hurt Russia鈥檚 economy by boosting American shale oil production and the first U.S. president to send weapons to Ukraine. And when the Russians repeatedly violated agreements that banned intermediate-range ballistic missiles and permitted to observe Russian and NATO conventional forces, Trump from both treaties. This is closer to the Kissingerian version of d茅tente鈥攍owering the temperature in some areas while ruthlessly pursuing advantages in more promising ones鈥攖han the kinder, gentler version promoted by Jimmy Carter and followed by today鈥檚 progressives.
That version is much less successful, even on its own terms. Both Barack Obama and Joe Biden hoped that a nuclear deal with Iran would be the first step to calming down the Middle East. Both failed, since the mullahs are not interested in getting along with the Great Satan. James Hansen, one of the intellectual godfathers of the climate movement, the Paris Agreement on climate as "a fraud really, a fake," since it is nonbinding and had no chance of reaching its targets. But for Beltway progressives, Trump鈥檚 withdrawals from the agreement in 2017 and last month were signs of the apocalypse.
Trump cherishes his reputation for unpredictability, and as of this writing, the contours of the Ukraine deal are not yet clear. But his in developing Ukraine鈥檚 mineral deposits indicates he is not planning on throwing Kiev under the bus. And during the last congressional debate about aiding Ukraine, Trump , "As everyone agrees, Ukrainian Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us! GET MOVING EUROPE!"
Getting Europe moving is a major goal. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Brussels Wednesday, "Any security guarantee [for Ukraine] should be backed by capable European and non-European troops" and that "Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and nonlethal aid to Ukraine." He some of his remarks the next day, saying "everything is on the table," but the overall thrust of American policy is in that direction.
Trump is betting that he can shock the Europeans out of their post-Cold War slumber. German chancellor Olaf Scholz is now another Zeitenwende, a strategic reorientation. But the German Army is for battle than it was when he announced the last Zeitenwende three years ago.
Trump is also betting that Putin wants a deal that meets his bottom line. Perhaps. But Russia is winning the war, and Putin may decide that humiliating America is worth the wait.
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