There鈥檚 considerable debate over whether the Obama administration鈥檚 recent accord with Iran will stop the regime from getting a nuclear weapon. But there can be no debate about the fact that the biggest beneficiaries of the accord and the impending lifting of sanctions will be鈥攂esides the rulers in Tehran鈥擱ussia and China. Beijing and Moscow are already seizing this moment to consolidate their steadily growing influence in the Middle East, through their client Iran, at the expense of the U.S. and its allies.
The emergence of a Moscow-Beijing-Tehran axis is now virtually certain. It鈥檚 also the biggest power shift in the Middle East since the Suez crisis of 1956.
This emerging axis comes as no surprise. Russia and China have been important enablers in Iran鈥檚 search for a nuclear weapon almost from the start, including Russia鈥檚 construction of the nuclear complex at Bashher and China providing key components for Tehran鈥檚 centrifuge program. Yet neither regime has suffered any criticism or lasting opprobrium for doing so, not least in the United Nations. On the contrary, the Obama administration assiduously cultivated their cooperation in the U.N. for imposing economic sanctions on Iran, even as Russia and China were sharply criticizing the entire sanctions regime, and China was given an exemption from the sanctions for purchasing Iranian oil.
Now Beijing and Moscow are about to see the policy they denounced, swept away by the Security Council鈥攁nd both are poised to take full advantage of the opportunity. They will be important players in the revivification of the Iranian economy in the postsanctions era, from information technology to oil-and-natural-gas development. China鈥檚 investment in the Iranian energy sector, for example, stands at more than $21 billion. The lifting of sanctions could double that amount, while China鈥檚 imports from Iran could rise to more than a million barrels a day from 600,000 barrels a day today in order to feed China鈥檚 growing demand for transport fuel.
With sanctions barring Iran鈥檚 purchase of conventional weapons also coming to an end, and a bankroll of some $100 billion in unfrozen assets to spend, we can expect a massive arms bazaar to open in Tehran, with Russia and China occupying the principal booths.
Moscow can offer the advanced Su-30 Flanker fighter to replace the Iranian air force鈥檚 fleet of Carter-era F-14s, as well as sophisticated antimissile systems like the S-400, which can make any future U.S. or Israeli attack on nuclear sites a prohibitively costly exercise.
China used to be Iran鈥檚 chief armorer in the 1980s and 1990s. Those arms sales fell off after 2001 under the watchful eyes of the Bush administration, when China didn鈥檛 want to be seen supporting the world鈥檚 biggest state sponsor of terrorism.
Those worries have disappeared with Mr. Obama. Iran may no longer be a big market for Chinese-built tanks and armored vehicles, which Iran has learned to supply for itself. But China can offer the JF-17 fighter, the J-20 Stealth fighter, the Type 039 Song-class submarine and advanced cruise missiles. The last two could help Iran consolidate its grip on the world鈥檚 supply of oil passing through the Hormuz Straits, in defiance of any U.S. naval moves to counter it鈥攁nd to the benefit of China.
Under the current accord, restrictions on exporting ballistic-missile technology to Iran are supposed to remain in place. But since Iran is busily building up its own homegrown missile program, and since the Russians openly defied existing sanctions when it delivered its S-300 antiaircraft system to Iran, no one should be surprised if Beijing and Moscow find ways to get Tehran advanced components and systems for its ballistic-missile arsenal as well.
Finally, and most significantly, a strong rising Iran advances both Russia鈥檚 and China鈥檚 strategic interests in the region. In Russia鈥檚 case, that includes Iran鈥檚 support of Bashir Assad, who will facilitate Russia鈥檚 growing naval presence in the eastern Mediterranean, even as America鈥檚 has been reduced to the vanishing point.
For China, it means adding Iran to its list of strategic partners, including expanding military cooperation (their navies held their first-ever joint exercises in September 2014) as well as membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (countries under U.N. sanctions aren鈥檛 allowed to join). China looks to Iran as a crucial forward base for its Silk Road Economic Belt, Beijing鈥檚 effort to expand its commercial and geopolitical interests in the Middle East. Iran鈥檚 success in advancing its influence in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and its liberation from sanctions, will make betting on it as the new dominant power in the Middle East look like a shrewd and prescient wager.
Whatever the current accord鈥檚 impact on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, its geopolitical impact will be enormous. The emergence of the Moscow-Beijing-Tehran axis, and of Russia and China as important Middle East players, will only hasten America鈥檚 eclipse as the region鈥檚 dominant outside power, with consequences no one can predict but about which no one should rest easy.