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Seven Questions for Robert Malley about the Iran Nuclear Deal

An Iranian boy in an IRGC uniform waves a flag in front of two ballistic missiles during a rally in Tehran on February 10, 2022. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Caption
An Iranian boy in an IRGC uniform waves a flag in front of two ballistic missiles during a rally in Tehran on February 10, 2022. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

On September 14, US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley will brief members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal, in a classified session. Here are the seven questions that we would like to see answered:

1. On August 12, you told PBS that, due to United States sanctions, Iran cannot sell oil on the international market. Yet Reuters reported last March that 鈥淐hina鈥檚 purchases of Iranian oil have risen to record levels in recent months, exceeding a 2017 peak when the trade was not subject to US sanctions.鈥� The same article reported that the Biden administration 鈥渉as so far chosen not to enforce the sanctions against Chinese individuals and companies amid the negotiations on reviving the 2015 deal.鈥� Who鈥檚 telling the truth, Reuters or you?

2. If the United States rejoins the JCPOA, will the Biden administration expect Israel to stop conducting military and intelligence operations designed to sabotage Iran鈥檚 nuclear program? If Israel does continue such operations, will the White House see them as attacks on American interests as codified in the JCPOA? Will you recommend to the president that he immediately provide Israel with the capabilities needed to prevent Iran from going nuclear in case the JCPOA fails?

3. Should the United States promise Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries that it will support their efforts to gain the same access to Russian and Western nuclear technology, the same fuel cycle capabilities, and the same security guarantees for their own nuclear programs that Iran will enjoy under the JCPOA?

4. In October 2025, the JCPOA鈥檚 snapback mechanism will expire, meaning that unless all five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council agree to reimpose sanctions or restrictions on Iran (a virtual impossibility due to the current geopolitical tensions), the threat of unified international action against Iran will disappear. What makes you think that Iran will comply with the terms of the JCPOA after the threat of snapback is gone?

5. In 2015, your colleague Colin Kahl鈥攚ho is now the under secretary of defense for policy and who was then the national security advisor to Vice President Joe Biden鈥攅xpressed confidence that the many billions of dollars in sanctions relief that the Islamic Republic stood to gain from the JCPOA would pose little threat to the United States or its allies. The Iranians, Kahl said, 鈥渁re not going to spend the . . . money on guns, most of it will go to butter.鈥� But today we know that the Iranian defense budget jumped by over 30 percent in the first three years after the JCPOA. Moreover, Iranian funding of terrorist groups and armed extremist groups鈥攊ncluding Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, the Polisario Front, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad鈥攕piked as well. How will Iran spend the hundreds of billions of dollars that a return to the JCPOA will deliver to it? Is your current analysis based on the same assumptions as Kahl鈥檚 analysis from 2015? If not, what recommendations have you made to President Biden about how to mitigate the dangers a newly enriched Iran would pose?

6. Iran鈥檚 ability to rapidly violate the terms of the JCPOA indicates that the deal never provided a one-year breakout time and that letting Iran preserve the nuclear infrastructure it used for those violations was a terrible mistake. Over the remaining years of the deal, the JCPOA allows that infrastructure (for which Iran has no peaceful need) to grow while the restrictions on it quickly disappear. Please explain how, in 2031, the agreement 鈥渨ill block all of Iran鈥檚 paths to a nuclear weapon,鈥� as its supporters have repeatedly claimed.

7. In previous testimony, you said that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran was complying with the JCPOA. But Iran has repeatedly asserted that it will never allow IAEA inspectors into military sites (including sites where, we know, Iran has carried out nuclear weapons鈥搑elated activity). After the JCPOA鈥檚 implementation, did IAEA inspectors ever visit Iranian military sites? Did they ask to do so? If the answers to either of these questions is no, what conclusions can we draw about the value of the IAEA鈥檚 certifications and the effectiveness of the 鈥渦nprecedented鈥� inspections that Obama and Biden administration officials have celebrated?