In the Ukraine war, the United States has developed a novel strategy: boiling the frog. If Russian leader Vladimir Putin feels the full brunt of Western capabilities at once, the thinking goes, he may react unpredictably. If, however, the West turns up the heat slowly鈥攂y spacing out the delivery of key weapons and restricting their use鈥擯utin will accept each incremental increase. One day, he鈥檒l wake to find it鈥檚 too late. He鈥檚 already cooked.
But this strategy prolongs the war. It ties Ukraine鈥檚 hands, preventing it from exploiting Russian vulnerabilities in a timely manner. While Ukraine pays in blood, Putin has time to regroup and revise his strategy to account for whatever new weapons Ukraine has received that month.
The supply of battle tanks is a case in point. For months supporters of Ukraine issued calls to supply it with tanks, which the Biden administration rejected.
The White House reversed course when it became obvious Putin was prepping the battlefield for a new offensive, strengthening his lines and pummeling Ukrainian positions with artillery barrages. By the time Western tanks finally arrive on the battlefield, the offensive will already be underway and launched from newly fortified positions.
The Biden administration has exercised such caution because it worries about triggering a nuclear war. But this telegraphing of fear signals to Putin that the mere threat of nuclear escalation will wring concessions from the West. By rewarding nuclear brinksmanship, the Biden team is increasing, not decreasing, the odds of escalation.
Indeed, a close examination of Putin鈥檚 saber-rattling reveals that it comes not in response to setbacks on the battlefield but to expressions by US leaders of reluctance to support Ukraine鈥檚 war aims. Putin is not suicidal. He has remained at the helm for over two decades, in part due to his respect for the logic of deterrence. Unable to take even the Donbas after a year of combat operations, he knows his degraded military is no match for the US and NATO. He has no intention of going to war with the West.
Vladimir Lenin supposedly said, 鈥淧robe with bayonets. If you find mush, you proceed. If you find steel, you withdraw.鈥� Putin has yet to find steel in the American position.
After announcing tanks for Ukraine, the Biden administration reconfirmed its is not to attain victory but to force Russia to the negotiating table, where Ukraine will also be asked to make concessions. On cue, Putin threatened the West with annihilation at last week鈥檚 .
To flip the script, the United States should set as its strategic goal the full liberation of Ukraine, provided Ukraine is willing to continue the fight. By setting down a powerful marker, the Biden administration would demonstrate to Putin the futility of his threats, strengthen Ukrainian morale and create the conditions that would foster a true spirit of compromise in Moscow.
A policy aimed to achieve a Ukrainian victory would also establish the principle that nuclear blackmail won鈥檛 be rewarded. Putin鈥檚 inversion of the logic of nuclear deterrence鈥攗tilizing it not as a defensive concept but for offensive blackmail鈥攚ill have failed.
Moreover, a policy of victory would give the administration a clear goal around which to rally the American people. And it would signal to China, as well as to our allies, that the United States has the political will to back its partners even in the toughest of circumstances.
Perhaps most important, however, it would give Ukraine a better chance at survival. The administration鈥檚 focus on forging a military balance that eventually yields a negotiated solution is premised on the total exhaustion of both Russia and Ukraine. By insisting that its weapons not be used to strike Russia (or even Crimea), Western policy ensures the destruction of vast swaths of Ukrainian territory while leaving Russia unharmed.
By contrast, a policy aimed at victory would provide Ukraine with access to advanced unmanned aerial vehicles, fighter jets and long-range systems like the Army Tactical Missile System that can hold Russian supply chains at risk, including inside Russia proper, and shorten the war.
Undoubtedly, Putin would look at such a development with frustration, even anger. But with the US committed to Ukraine鈥檚 victory, no amount of cunning or bluster could arrest the collapse of his imperial project.
The boiled frog strategy assumes that Putin will wake up, realize that the cost of the war is too great to bear and sue for peace. But the only way to bring him to his senses is to turn up the heat.