China has embarked on a grand journey west. Officials in Beijing are driven by aspirations of leadership across their home continent of Asia, feelings of being hemmed in on their eastern flank by U.S. alliances, and their perception that opportunities await across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Along the way, their first stop is South Asia, which this report defines as comprising eight countries鈥擜fghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka鈥攁long with the Indian Ocean (particularly the eastern portions but with implications for its entirety). China鈥檚 ties to the region are long-standing and date back well before the founding of the People鈥檚 Republic in 1949.
However, around the beginning of this century, Beijing鈥檚 relations with South Asia began to expand and deepen rapidly in line with its broader efforts to 鈥済o global.鈥� General Secretary Xi Jinping鈥檚 ascendance to China鈥檚 top leader in 2012 and the subsequent expansion of Chinese activities beyond its borders鈥攊ncluding through Xi鈥檚 signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)鈥攈ave accelerated the building of links to South Asia in new and ambitious ways.
In South Asia, China has encountered a dynamic region marked by as many endemic problems as enticing opportunities. It is a region struggling with violent conflict, nuclear-armed brinksmanship, extensive human development challenges, and potentially crippling exposure to the ravages of climate change. But it is also one whose economic growth prior to the COVID-19 pandemic was robust, that has a demographic dividend, and whose vibrant independent states are grappling with the challenges of democratic governance鈥攊ncluding the world鈥檚 largest democracy in India. China鈥檚 expanding presence in the region is already reshaping South Asia, which is simultaneously emerging as an area where U.S.-China and regional competition plays out from the Himalayan heights to the depths of the Indian Ocean.
Read the full report in