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Commentary
The Wall Street Journal

Can India Emerge as a Rival to China?

Manufacturing hasn鈥檛 been a strong suit, and technology alone won鈥檛 do the trick.

walter_russell_mead
walter_russell_mead
Ravenel B. Curry III Distinguished Fellow in Strategy and Statesmanship
President Xi Jinping (R) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands before the group photo during the BRICS Summit at the Xiamen International Conference and Exhibition Center in Xiamen, southeastern China's Fujian Province on September 4, 2017.
Caption
President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands before the group photo during the BRICS Summit in Fujian, China, on September 4, 2017. (Kenzaburo Fukuhara/AFP via Getty Images)

New Delhi

 to Washington reminded Americans last week that Japan has become America鈥檚 most important ally. But my visit to the Ananta Centre鈥檚 India-U.S. Forum here over the weekend reminded me that the future of the Indo-Pacific rests largely in India鈥檚 hands.

The history of Asia can be read in comparing the Indian and Chinese economies. According to World Bank figures in chained dollars, in 1980 India鈥檚 gross domestic product was 64% of China鈥檚. By 2001 when China joined the World Trade Organization, India鈥檚 economy was only 28% as large as China鈥檚. And, despite several years of rapid growth in the 21st century, by 2021 India鈥檚 economy had fallen even further behind and equaled only 17% of the Chinese economy. Even as India has caught up with China in population and built a world-class cyber industry, it has not emerged as the kind of manufacturing powerhouse that could rival China鈥檚 economic weight in Asia and beyond.