Soon after Donald Trump entered the race, pundits predicted that his campaign would surely collapse quickly and that he would self-destruct. Every time another such prediction was made, somehow Trump managed to stay ahead in the polls, and his crowds grew bigger and bigger.
Now, signs are emerging that Trump鈥檚 front-runner status may be coming to a close. The reveals that although still ahead, his poll numbers are slipping. He is not doing well when matched against Hillary. In a hypothetical race, Trump comes out ahead of Clinton in only one poll. More importantly, in the , in a presidential race with Trump, Hillary comes out ahead by a margin of + 2, and in a contest with Joe Biden, Biden comes in as winning the national election by + 11.
Conservative commentators have taken note of this. In , Robert Tracinski writes that Trump looks 鈥渟ensitive and thin-skinned.鈥� He makes the point that Trump is now in the same place Rick Perry was in the polls four years ago, and we know how that turned out. In , Charles C.W. Cooke, in a scathing column, writes that Trump has become a whiner 鈥渞educed to sterile indignation.鈥� Trump is a man who responds to criticism by threatening law suits, by descending to ad hominem and crude attacks, and, as Cooke writes, by acting like a 鈥渞ebellious three-year old.鈥� And in Sunday鈥檚 George Will says that 鈥渘othing is now more virtuous than scrubbing, as soon as possible, the Trump stain from public life.鈥�
Perhaps the turning point was the boos Trump received at when he attacked Marco Rubio:
You have this clown, Marco Rubio, I鈥檝e been so nice to him. I鈥檝e been so nice and then 鈥� no, but he鈥檚 in favor of immigration and he has been, he has been, it was the 鈥楪ang of 8鈥� and you remember the 鈥淕ang of 8,鈥� it was terrible.
Trump, who has changed his position on almost everything, is the last person who should be chastising Rubio for moving away from his original position on immigration.
Compare Rubio on foreign policy to Donald Trump. Trump blusters that when he becomes president, he will be able to quickly learn about the important issues facing the country and will put together a first-rate team that will advise him. In the meantime, Trump has famously said, he gets his information from TV. Very reassuring. Rubio has said of Trump鈥檚 answers on foreign policy questions that he 鈥渉as sound bites, not policy proposals.鈥� In contrast, Rubio shows a thorough and well-thought out position on every foreign policy issue. He gives comprehensive and searching answers, and is well equipped to handle any Democratic opponent in a debate.
Trump, moreover, continually makes false charges about virtually everything. Glenn Thrush in notes:
Trump鈥檚 stock-in-trade is telling it like it is, but his propensity for telling it like it isn鈥檛 has engendered deep distrust 鈥� 29 percent of they would never vote for him.
When fifty of Trump鈥檚 recent statements were fact-checked by PolitiFact, Thrush notes, its editors concluded that three-quarters of them rated as false, partly false, or blatant 鈥減ants on fire鈥� lies.
Rubio and John Kasich are slowly making inroads, going up in the polls, and would have more of a chance of winning in a national election than Trump. Indeed, a Kasich-Rubio or Rubio-Kasich ticket would most likely win Ohio and Florida, helping to guarantee a Republican victory. Remember that no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio, a state that could easily go Democratic with Trump or Ted Cruz as the GOP鈥檚 nominee.
Trump will lose because when push comes to shove, voters will distrust him as much as or more than they currently distrust Hillary Clinton. Political analyst writes:
Four bankruptcies, three wives, two parties, one big problem for America. That six-second tagline to an ad sums up why, when the chips are down, the Donald鈥檚 getting fired. This mantra will take Trump down because his appeal rests on trust. Voters angry with elites for various reasons trust that Trump will have their backs in office. But the 4-3-2-1 line of attack shows why exactly the opposite is true.
Just as Hillary is being advised to appear more compassionate and human -- apparently a difficult task -- Trump is obviously being advised to tone down his nasty and condescending insults, but it seems like he can鈥檛 help himself.
As we move ahead, I will stick my neck out and predict that Trump will suffer the fate Rick Perry did in 2012. And hence, I cite Perry鈥檚 wisdom as he dropped out of the current race, when he warned that Donald Trump is a 鈥渃ancer upon conservatism.鈥�