Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine, focusing this week on Ukraine鈥檚 success in the skies.
1. Ukraine鈥檚 Air Defenses Score Several Noteworthy Kills
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported last week that its air defenses combat aircraft within only 11 days. The butcher鈥檚 bill included one A-50 Beriev airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, two Su-35 air-superiority fighters, and 10 Su-34 fighter-bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
Last week鈥檚 edition of this report assessed how Russia鈥檚 invasion campaign would be hindered if it were to lose any of its A-50 Berievs. The Su-35, the air-superiority fighter that has long been on Iran鈥檚 wish list in exchange for providing drone and missile assistance to the Russian military, is another high-profile victim of Ukraine鈥檚 air defense prowess. But of all the aircraft the Kremlin lost last week, the Su-34 is the most significant.
2. Russia鈥檚 Diminishing Fleet of Su-34s Could Weaken Its Air Campaign
Only 100 of Russia鈥檚 initial fleet of 140 Su-34 fighter-bombers are thought to have survived the war thus far. Of these remaining aircraft, just 75 percent are estimated to be combat-ready. Since the Su-34, battle-tested during Russia鈥檚 involvement in Syria, is the country鈥檚 principal aircraft for precision-guided munitions (PGMs), significant losses of the fighter-bomber would likely reduce Russia鈥檚 ability to fire precision salvos against targets in Ukraine.
The Su-34 is perhaps the most unusual derivative of the Su-27 Flanker baseline. Equipped an armored cockpit to withstand anti-aircraft ground fire, the aircraft is a twin-engine, twin-seat, supersonic fighter-bomber capable of operating in all weather. Enjoying a range of 2,500 miles without aerial refueling, the Su-34鈥檚 12 external hardpoints can carry up to 30,000 pounds of munitions. It can deliver R-77, R-73, and R-27 air-to-air missiles, as well as a broad range of air-to-ground and anti-ship missiles. Compared to the Su-25鈥檚 SOLT-25 and the Su-24M鈥檚 Kaira-24 sensor configurations, the Su-34鈥檚 Platan retractable electro-optical sensor is the best in Russia鈥檚 arsenal. Possessing laser-designation capabilities that make it formidable in combat, the Su-34 is in air-ground operations, although the system is nowhere near as robust as its American or European counterparts.
As Russia鈥檚 defense industry has focused on equipping legacy cluster and incendiary with wings, effectively turning them into improvised glide bombs, the Su-34 has become the combat aircraft of choice for delivering those bombs. Thus, a significant attrition of Russia鈥檚 Su-34 arsenal would limit the Kremlin鈥檚 options.
According to estimates, the Russian Aerospace Forces鈥� recent combat aircraft losses exceed what its hampered defense industry can replace in a year . Russian planners therefore face a dilemma: do they continue to use the Su-34 and risk the fleet鈥檚 further attrition, or employ a less effective alternative? Should the West opt to provide a significant boost to Ukraine鈥檚 air defense capabilities, Russia could lose half its Su-34 deterrent within a year. This, to put it mildly, would drastically affect the operational tempo of its air campaign.
3. Ukrainian Forces Find Success with the Innovative Use of Surface-to-Air Missiles
For some time, the Ukrainian military has been focusing its efforts on intercepting Russian combat aircraft in larger numbers. This approach to the conflict has , leading to sensational kills, including the recent downing of three Su-34 aircraft .
The likeliest explanation for Ukraine鈥檚 success is its combat deployment of high-end surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems closer to the front lines. Given the Russian Aerospace Forces鈥� poor capabilities in the destruction and suppression of enemy air defenses (DEAD and SEAD, respectively), this strategy carries manageable risks for Ukraine. The bulk of Ukraine鈥檚 SAM losses, moreover, have been artillery and rocket salvos from Russian ground forces rather than by Russia鈥檚 air deterrent.
In addition to employing state-of-the-art Western systems, the Ukrainian defense technological and industrial base (DTIB) has reportedly retrofitted and modernized its SAMs, giving an extra boost to the country鈥檚 air defenses.
4. Ukraine Risks Depleting Its Stock of Interceptor Missiles
While Ukraine鈥檚 air defenses have seen considerable success, Kyiv risks depleting its supply of interceptor missiles, especially its Patriot strategic SAMs and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS).
For the short to medium altitudes, the West has sought to address this issue with an outside-the-box solution: the FrankenSAM system that combines Soviet-era launcher architecture with legacy Western Sea Sparrow and Sidewinder missiles. This unconventional solution scored its first kill in .
But Ukraine has no easy fix for refilling its diminishing stock of strategic interceptor missiles. Unless Kyiv鈥檚 Western providers replenish these assets, may be forced to remain idle except when engaging the most serious and direct threats.
5. Battlefield Assessment
Last week, Russia shifted its focus to occupying the territory surrounding Avdiivka after capturing the city, and made steady gains in implementing this strategy. Evidence suggests that Russian combat formations have advanced a few kilometers along a front line adjacent to the city, capturing multiple villages along the way. The situation unfolding around Avdiivka suggests that the Russian high command is pressing to move into Ukraine鈥檚 lines of defense.
At present, the main Russian push in Ukraine remains focused on the eastern sector, with another offensive occurring in the southern sector. Multiple clashes have occurred along this eastern line of contact, including in hotspots such as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Kupiansk. In the south, most of last week鈥檚 positional clashes revolved around , where Russian forces are still working to dismantle the Ukrainian bridgehead across the Dnipro River.
Ukraine鈥檚 defensive efforts in Robotyne, the most important gain from its summer 2023 counteroffensive, , forestalling a large withdrawal. Reports from the battlefield suggest that Russian in the region currently involve elements from the 42nd Motor-Rifle Division, as well as the airborne troops (VDV). Russia continues to shell the area heavily.
Alongside the intense ground combat, Moscow has continued to pound Ukrainian cities with mixed strike packages featuring Russian missiles and Iranian loitering munitions. According to local reports, Russia also launched missile salvos from the of .
On March 1, Russia attacked multiple cities, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy. Ukrainian officials report that Ukraine intercepted 14 of the 17 Shahed loitering munitions that Russia launched. The three drones that reached their targets, however, caused considerable damage and casualties in Odesa and Kharkiv, illustrating the difficulty of completely eradicating an offense-dominant regime.