Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Moscow-Pyongyang cooperation: Ukraine captured several North Korean troops in the Russian region of Kursk and posted videos of their interrogations online.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Battlefield assessment: The Russian military maneuvered to cut Ukraine鈥檚 access to critical highways on the Pokrovsk front as Kyiv鈥檚 forces continue to endure worrisome force generation problems.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Drone warfare update: Ukrainian long-range drones hit targets deep inside Russia, while Russian fiber-optic-enabled drones troubled Ukrainian defenses.
1. North Korean Casualties Mount in Kursk
North Korea has continued to deepen its engagement in the Russian region of Kursk, where Pyongyang鈥檚 have been pushed into high-risk offensive tasks. that hundreds of North Korean fighters have been killed in action, and thousands more wounded. But despite these casualties, North Korea has continued to rotate and reinforce its troops, showcasing its commitment to Russia鈥檚 war.
Notably, some of these troops, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has posted of their interrogations on his . South Korean news outlets reported that the captured troops were serving with the , a key intelligence agency. While Ukraine has yet to capture a high-ranking North Korean officer, this possibility cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, Pyongyang will likely send additional troops from its most elite formations to Kursk鈥攁nd possibly to occupied Ukraine. American officials report that Russia has agreed to supply North Korea with Su-27 and MiG-29 combat aircraft in return for its contributions. The two allies may also share ballistic missile technology and . These developments demonstrate that Kyiv and Seoul need to deepen their security and intelligence cooperation.
2. Battlefield Assessment
Today 18 percent of Ukraine is under Russian . Despite high casualties, the Russian military maintains an offensive footing on multiple fronts.
The Kremlin鈥檚 abundance of manpower highlights Ukraine鈥檚 force generation troubles. Kyiv has that it transferred technicians from the Ukrainian Air Force . But press sources indicate that President Zelenskyy intervened to countermand this .
True or not, these rumors point to a grim reality. Over the past week, the Russian military has successfully pushed onto the highway network surrounding Pokrovsk. It has likely secured Neskuchne, to the southwest , where Russian combat formations have already been operating along the Mokri Yaly River. Russia has also gained territory in Toretsk and Kurakhove.
In Kursk, Russia and Ukraine have been conducting separate tactical high operational tempos. As in previous weeks, Russia鈥檚 operational concepts have involved launching both mechanized, echeloned attacks and waves of soldiers at Ukrainian defenses. Ukraine鈥檚 attempts to hit the Russian rear with fire-support weapons have found some success: on January 7, Kyiv conducted a precision strike against Russia鈥檚 810th Separate Marine Brigade in Kursk.
3. Drone Warfare Update
As previous editions of this report have highlighted, Russia has continued to use first-person-view (FPV) drones equipped with fiber-optic cables to counter Ukraine鈥檚 electronic warfare efforts in Kursk. In recent interviews, Ukrainian personnel have stated that they have resorted to using shotguns against these drones because other defenses have .
Russia to launch loitering munition salvos against Ukraine, employing predominantly Iranian Shahed drones. The Kremlin鈥檚 target set included and energy grid. Statistical assessments suggest that Moscow, with Tehran鈥檚 help, has the capacity to launch over 1,500 Shaheds per month.
In drone warfare, volume matters. Roughly half of Russia鈥檚 strike packages fail to breach Ukraine鈥檚 air defenses and others fall prey to Kyiv鈥檚 electronic warfare efforts. But even a low rate of success can cause significant damage. , its most prolific month to date, the Russian military launched 2,300 kamikaze drones at Ukraine. Iranian drones will likely continue to grow in importance throughout 2025.
Two bright spots did emerge for Ukraine. First, Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR) operatives managed to infiltrate the Russian rear area and inflict damage on enemy units. Second, Ukraine used its robust long-range strike capabilities to conduct overwhelming strikes deep inside Russia, most prominently in a January 14 attack on ammunition depots at the Engels-2 air base and various .