Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥� Russia targeted Ukraine鈥檚 energy grid in a large-scale air raid that featured Iranian drones and North Korean missiles.
鈥� Kyiv鈥檚 F-16 fighter aircraft defended against the attack.
鈥� North Korean troops reportedly engaged in combat operations in Russia鈥檚 Kursk region.
鈥� The chaotic situation in Syria continued to divert the Kremlin鈥檚 attention from Ukraine.
1. Russia Targets Ukraine鈥檚 Energy Grid with Iranian Drones and North Korean Missiles
On December 13, Russia launched a massive drone and missile salvo against Ukraine鈥檚 energy infrastructure. The strike, Russia鈥檚 twelfth large-scale attack on Ukraine鈥檚 energy grid in , involved .
Weapons from Russia鈥檚 closest allies helped shape the strike package, which included North Korean KN-23 tactical ballistic missiles and Iranian Shahed-baseline loitering munitions. The strike also featured Russian Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles released by Tu-95 strategic bomber aircraft, Kalibr naval cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea, and .
Ukrainian defenses scored interceptions of the incoming projectiles in Kyiv Oblast and near Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Odesa. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the nation鈥檚 growing F-16 fleet played a critical role in halting .
As in previous winters, Ukraine鈥檚 energy grid bore the brunt of the strike. Thermal power plants operated by DTEK, the largest private investor in the energy industry in Ukraine, were among Russia鈥檚 highest-priority targets. The Russian drone and missile strike also caused the Polish Air Force to scramble its quick reaction alert fighters as the incoming munitions .
As winter conditions worsen, Russia will likely continue to strike Ukraine where it is most vulnerable. With Russia and Iran鈥檚 joint Shahed drone plant in Tatarstan producing at increased capacity and North Korea deepening its involvement in the war, it appears the Kremlin will be able to sustain this high operational tempo of long-range salvos.
2. North Korean Troops Engage in Combat Operations in Kursk
President Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged that a forward-deployed North Korean contingent has been engaged in combat operations region. An unauthenticated video circulating on social media reportedly shows North Korean troops, believed to be operating under Russian command, fighting in infantry roles of operations. Ukrainian formations have also released digital intelligence depicting heavy combat in .
To date, has supplied Russian formations with , land warfare , rockets, and missiles. As previous Hudson assessments have highlighted, North Korea will likely send more equipment and troops to Russia in the coming months. While it remains to be seen whether its servicemen will remain in Kursk or fight in occupied Ukrainian territory, Pyongyang鈥檚 soldiers will gain invaluable combat experience alongside their Russian comrades. Ominously, North Korea has reached the doorstep of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
3. Battlefield Assessment
While no drastic changes occurred on the battlefield last week, the outlook continued to deteriorate for Ukrainian formations across multiple fronts. Russian forces made gains near Pokrovsk, while Siversk, Lymansk, Chasiv Yar, and Velyka Novosilka saw heavy combat activity. In the south, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) conducted salvos. Additionally, the Russian high command has reportedly deployed special technology teams to convert captured , including Baba Yaga night bombers, into Russian assets.
The evolving situation in Syria is diverting the Kremlin鈥檚 attention from Ukraine. Moscow continues to send high-end equipment, such as surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, to its Khmeimim Air Base on the Mediterranean Sea. Satellite imagery has also revealed Russian Il-76 and An-124 cargo aircraft preparing for , suggesting that a large-scale withdrawal may soon occur, though Syria鈥檚 new government has not formally asked Russian forces to leave the country. Russian vessels in limbo continue to loiter off the Syrian coast, at Russia鈥檚 Tartus naval base.