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Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the Russia-Ukraine War.

Executive Summary

• Moscow and Pyongyang shift messaging: Statements from state-owned media in Pyongyang and Moscow suggested that North Korean troops may fight in occupied Ukraine following the end of combat operations in Kursk.
• Russia’s sustained strike campaign: High domestic armaments production, along with Iranian and North Korean support, enabled Russia to stress Ukraine’s air defenses with missile and drone salvos.
• Drone warfare update: Ukrainian drone operators intercepted an advanced Russian unmanned system.
• Battlefield assessment: The Russian military remained on an offensive footing across multiple flashpoints.

1. North Korea May Expand Its Role in the War

In line with Soviet information warfare practices, Russia and North Korea have long denied that North Korean troops are fighting against Ukraine. But last week, state-owned media organs in Moscow and Pyongyang officially acknowledged that North Korean combat formations have been operating in the Russian region of Kursk. This change might indicate that North Korean troops will play an expanded role in the war.

Multiple political indicators support this conclusion. North Korea’s state news agency, KCNA, recently described the Ukrainian military as “neo-Nazi,�� echoing  often used by Russian officials to justify the invasion. The news agency also referenced article 4—the joint war clause—of the mutual defense treaty  by Moscow and Pyongyang.

TASS, a , echoed the wording of its North Korean counterpart. Moreover, the Russian Ministry of Defense’s decision to post videos of soldiers from the two countries conducting joint  and  further demonstrates that Pyongyang and Moscow have changed their media coverage of the conflict. This is likely an effort to prepare public opinion for an increased North Korean role.

Previous editions of this report have assessed the force-generation trends driving the  in Kursk. The unit that combat-deployed to the region is comprised predominantly of servicemen from the 11th Corps, a special forces unit that is trained to open a second, strategic front to stress the adversary. Therefore, if North Korean troops enter Ukraine, it is likely that the initial unit will pursue this objective to lay the groundwork for Pyongyang to send follow-on forces.

According to assessments from South Korea’s intelligence agency, North Korea rotated and reinforced its troops deployed to Russia even after losing a brigade-size force in Kursk. The  thousands of men without hesitation indicates that Pyongyang has a large pool of fighters, many of them from special forces units, from which it can stage further deployments. North Korea is likely to play a larger role in the war moving forward, posing yet another challenge for Ukraine and its allies in an increasingly difficult conflict.

2. Battlefield Assessment

Last week the Russian Aerospace Forces launched an intense . Intelligence reports indicate that the Kremlin’s assault was made possible by assistance from Iran and North Korea, along with the rapid expansion of armaments factories in Russia.

The attacks overwhelmed Ukraine’s land-based air defenses, forcing it to scramble its already scarce group of . Following the salvo, the Ukrainian Air Force posted a video of one of its MiG-29 fighter aircraft intercepting a Shahed drone. As previous editions of this report have highlighted, satellite imagery and intelligence indicators suggest that Russia has significantly boosted its , straining Ukrainian defenses.

Russian ground forces also pressed along multiple flashpoints. Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Siversk, Lymansk, and Toretsk all witnessed  last week. Pushing back against Russia’s onslaught, the Ukrainian Presidential Brigade’s  detachments successfully struck Russia’s positions near Toretsk.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has also been highly active , helping to ease the pressure on the front lines. Open-source intelligence suggests that the SBU’s elite drone operators are targeting Russian heavy armor, including high-end main battle tanks such as T-90s. Heavy exchanges  near Kamianka, along the Kharkiv-Kupiansk axis. Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Ukraine’s General Staff issued conflicting  outcome of these clashes.

Finally, Ukraine achieved another milestone in robotic warfare. The Magyar Birds, a  unit that is known for leveraging social media to build support for its operations, used a first-person-view drone to intercept a Russian Forpost medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) drone. The group’s adept use of both unmanned systems and information warfare points the way for the future of armed conflict.