鈥淚 have no expectations that Georgia鈥檚 government will return to its previous path of Euro-Atlantic integration. At best, Georgian Dream might make some concessions鈥攖o the political opposition and civil society.
In the longer term, once there is a democratic change of power in the country, U.S.-Georgia relations will likely return to their previous course.
That said, it鈥檚 hard to imagine Georgian Dream making any concessions at this point. They believe they are playing their hand well, largely because of the West鈥檚, particularly Washington鈥檚, weak response to their actions.
鈥淭he U.S. response is too slow and ineffective鈥�
The Biden administration鈥檚 approach to largely mirrors the mistakes it made regarding Ukraine. They consistently delayed action, opting for measures that gave the appearance of progress rather than taking swift and necessary steps.
Take, for example, the public statements and sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on high-ranking Georgian Dream officials. These actions were always delayed and lacked sufficient strength. It鈥檚 no surprise they failed to have a meaningful impact on the current situation.
If it comes to the point where the U.S. does not recognize the legitimacy of the Georgian Dream government, this would mean that U.S. attention and resources should shift toward those who can be considered legitimate鈥攖he Georgian people.
A similar scenario has unfolded in Belarus, where U.S. efforts and resources are focused on civil society, NGOs, and political opposition groups.
鈥淩ecall the ambassador and appoint a charg茅 d鈥檃ffaires鈥�
For a long time, Georgian Dream has openly criticized U.S. ambassadors without facing any significant response.
In my view, the U.S. should downgrade its diplomatic representation in Georgia by appointing a charg茅 d鈥檃ffaires instead of an ambassador. This would send a clear message that the U.S. does not recognize the government as legitimate.
Let鈥檚 be honest鈥擴.S. ambassadors in Georgia in recent years have not been as effective as they should have been. So, in practical terms, this change would have little immediate impact, but on a geostrategic level, I believe it would send the right signal.
鈥淭rump talks about annexing Canada鈥攄oes anyone think he鈥檒l tolerate disrespect from Georgian authorities?鈥�
The way Georgian Dream representatives speak about U.S. ambassadors is not the kind of dialogue the U.S. expects from a partner.
Georgian Dream must understand that Donald Trump鈥檚 administration will not tolerate such behavior. This is someone who talks about annexing Canada鈥攄o you think he would accept even a moment of disrespect toward himself or his appointed ambassador? Of course not.
"If I were a Georgian citizen, I wouldn鈥檛 want my country to become the Belarus of the Caucasus. But the sad reality is that this is exactly the direction things are heading."
Violence against civil society, the media, and protesters鈥攕lowly but surely, Georgian Dream is leading Georgia down this path.
鈥淯nfortunately, the opposition failed to counter the fearmongering narrative that someone is trying to drag Georgia into a war鈥�
There is no 鈥渄eep state鈥� attempting to undermine U.S.-Georgia relations. This is simply Georgian Dream鈥檚 effort to ingratiate itself with Trump through disinformation and propaganda.
Many of Trump鈥檚 key supporters in Congress actually back sanctions legislation targeting the Georgian authorities. Support for democracy in Georgia comes from both American parties鈥擱epublican and Democratic alike.
As for Georgian Dream鈥檚 claim about a so-called 鈥済lobal war party鈥� allegedly pressuring Georgia to open a second front and join the war with Russia, I have never heard any serious analyst, political expert, lawmaker, or commentator in America entertain this idea.
This is yet another example of Georgian Dream trying to scare the Georgian public. They used this narrative quite effectively before the elections. Unfortunately, the political opposition has failed to mount a significant response to challenge this argument.鈥�
Enjoyed this op-ed? Subscribe to Hudson鈥檚 newsletters to stay up to date with our latest content.