The Elephant Not in the Room
On February 17, French President Emmanuel Macron the leaders of Denmark, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, the European Commission, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to reaffirm support for Ukraine. But NATO鈥檚 military power, Turkey, was conspicuously absent.
While Europe deliberated and the United States Russia in Saudi Arabia, Turkey maneuvered to reshape the strategic theater. By Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Ankara, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an sent a clear signal that Turkey remains a key player in shaping Ukraine鈥檚 future. Zelenskyy reinforced this, that 鈥渢he European Union, Turkey, and the UK . . . should be involved in conversations and the development of the necessary security guarantees with America regarding the fate of our part of the world.鈥�
Turkey鈥檚 Broader Geopolitical Contest with Russia
For Ankara, Ukraine is not an isolated conflict. It is part of a broader geopolitical contest with Moscow. Turkey and Russia have clashed across multiple fronts, from to to the , and the nations鈥� rivalry is now expanding into Africa. Russia seeks to further entrench its paramilitary footprint as Turkey extends its political, military, and economic reach on the continent. Mercenaries linked to the private military company Wagner in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, while Turkey engages with state-to-state partnerships, defense contracts, and infrastructure deals in the Sahel, offering what Moscow鈥檚 mercenary-driven model cannot. And in the Red Sea, Ankara is its presence in Sudan while Russia eyes a in the country.
The Ankara-Moscow dynamic is a multi-theater balancing act鈥攃ooperative when convenient, combative when required, and always driven by a strategic calculus. But in Syria and Libya in particular, Turkey has dramatically exposed Russia鈥檚 vulnerabilities.
In Syria, Turkey has repeatedly clashed with Russian-backed forces. For instance, during the Syrian Civil War, Turkish troops a Russian-Assadist offensive in Idlib. But the Russian military鈥檚 position in Syria is increasingly exposed after Russia the Bashar al-Assad regime and the Kremlin underestimated Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian proxies, which were essential to Moscow鈥檚 control.
Crucially, the collapse of Russia鈥檚 anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) system in Syria鈥攄esigned to deter NATO operations鈥攈as altered the operational landscape. With Russia no longer able to sustain robust air defense coverage, Turkey has far greater operational freedom in Syria. Meanwhile, Turkey鈥檚 influence over Syria鈥檚 current government grants Ankara additional leverage over Moscow, especially as Russia withdraws its military presence at Hmeimim Air Base and its main Mediterranean Sea foothold at Tartus.
In Libya, Turkey鈥檚 proved decisive. By backing the United Nations鈥搑ecognized Government of National Accord (GNA) against the Russia-supported Libyan National Army (LNA), Turkey forced Russian-backed militias into retreat, dismantled 鈥榮 operational stronghold, and altered the war鈥檚 trajectory. This shift not only curtailed Russian influence in North Africa but also solidified Turkey鈥檚 long-term presence in the region. As a testament to this growing influence, the African Union recently that Libya will host the African-Turkish summit in 2026鈥攁 move that underscores Turkey鈥檚 deepening of its strategic foothold at Moscow鈥檚 expense.
Bridging the Gap: Why the West Needs to Engage with Turkey
From the Mediterranean to the Caspian, Turkey is not just engaging in force projection鈥攊t is executing a strategic realignment, disrupting Russia鈥檚 operational calculus, and forcing Vladimir Putin into a reactive posture.
In this context, hosting Zelenskyy helped Turkey maximize its leverage over both the East and West. First, Turkey鈥檚 strategic from European affairs helps Ankara strengthen its position with Moscow, as Russia views Turkey, which is unencumbered by EU constraints, as a neutral player it can engage with. Second, its military autonomy, particularly in drone warfare and arms production, aligns with President Donald Trump鈥檚 push for self-reliance within NATO. The president Turkey after its military successes in Syria. Third, despite its dealings with Moscow, Turkey remains one of Ukraine鈥檚 strongest backers, steadfast in defending Kyiv鈥檚 and countering Russian expansionism.
Supporting Ukraine constrains Russian expansion in the Black Sea and strengthens Turkey鈥檚 strategic position. From Ankara鈥檚 perspective, a resilient and sovereign Ukraine is a crucial check against Russian dominance in the region. Unlike the many European nations that hesitated to support Kyiv, Ankara moved decisively. Days after Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion, Turkey the Montreux Convention, closing the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits to Russian warships鈥攁 move that, while framed as neutrality, severely restricted Moscow鈥檚 ability to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet.
On the battlefield, Turkey has armed Ukraine with one of its most effective weapons systems: the Bayraktar TB2 drone, which also proved in Libya. These drones helped Ukraine destroy Russian armored columns and naval assets, tipping the balance in key battles and allowing Turkey the war without direct military engagement.
By arming Ukraine with one hand and dealing with Russia with the other, Turkey has used strategic leverage to great effect. While the US and Europe debate their next move and fine-tune aid packages, Turkey has kept Russia stretched thin across multiple fronts鈥攁 tactic Western capitals are unable or unwilling to employ.
Macron鈥檚 Paris summit displayed European unity but revealed a strategic miscalculation. Turkey鈥檚 role in countering Russia, especially in NATO鈥檚 southern neighborhood, is too big to sideline. Underestimating Turkey is not just shortsighted鈥攊t is a strategic failure. If Europe is serious about reinforcing Ukraine and keeping Russia in check, it needs to engage with Turkey as a key strategic partner.
Meanwhile, Turkey is not awaiting any consensus. Ankara will continue to exploit gaps in Russia鈥檚 geostrategic posture in line with its own interests. The West should recognize Ankara鈥檚 strategic significance and seize the opportunity to cooperate on shared priorities before time runs out.