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Taiwan: After-Election Report

A CH-47 Chinook helicopter carries a Taiwan flag during National Day celebrations in Taipei on October 10, 2021. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)
Caption
A CH-47 Chinook helicopter carries a Taiwan flag during National Day celebrations in Taipei on October 10, 2021. (Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images)

William Lai (Lai Ching-te) and Bi-Khim Hsiao of Taiwan鈥檚 Democratic People鈥檚 Party (DPP) won the January 13 election and will be sworn in as president and vice president of the Republic of China, also known as Taiwan, in May. Lai and Hsiao are expected to continue many of the current administration鈥檚 policies, including an America-forward foreign policy, as Beijing maintains its hostile position toward Taiwan and the DPP. Despite the party continuity in Taiwan鈥檚 presidential office, the ruling DPP will have to work with opposition parties to pass legislation in Taiwan鈥檚 legislature for the next four years. Regardless of Taiwan鈥檚 internal politics, the international community has expressed considerable support for the democratic success of Taiwan鈥檚 election鈥攆or example, Hudson President and CEO John Walters sent a of congratulations.

Below are some key takeaways from the election results. To learn more about Taiwan鈥檚 election, join Hudson on January 23, 2024, at 9:00 a.m. for a public event titled 鈥�.鈥�

1. Party continuity in the presidential office. William Lai and Bi-khim Hsiao of the DPP have won Taiwan鈥檚 election and will become its next president and vice president, respectively. Roughly 13.95 million people, or 71.4 percent of registered voters, turned out for the election. The Lai-Hsiao ticket won with 40.1 percent of the vote. Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) finished with 33.5 percent, and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan鈥檚 People Party (TPP) tallied 26.5 percent. This will be the DPP鈥檚 third consecutive term in the president鈥檚 office, following President Tsai Ing-wen鈥檚 two terms. The Lai-Hsiao ticket is the first time a party has broken Taiwan鈥檚 鈥渆ight-year curse.鈥� No political party has previously held the president鈥檚 office for more than two consecutive terms.

2. Plurality in the Legislative Yuan. Despite winning the president鈥檚 office, the DPP lost 10 seats in Taiwan鈥檚 113-member legislative body, the Legislative Yuan (LY). When the next legislative term begins, the KMT will have a plurality, having gained 14 seats for a total of 52. The DPP will have the second largest number of seats with 51, and the TPP will have the third most with eight. Therefore, the DPP and KMT will have to work more closely with the TPP and Taiwan鈥檚 two independent legislators to create a majority. While the KMT鈥檚 plurality may slow down some of the Lai administration鈥檚 initiatives, it may also offer greater debate and transparency in the LY.

3. International support remains strong. A broad spectrum of international observers have expressed support for the president-elect. The American, Australian, British, and Japanese foreign ministers are just a few of the officials who have congratulated the people of Taiwan on another free and fair election and sent their regards to William Lai. The United States and Japan were among the first countries to send official representation to Taiwan following the election.

4. A relatively quiet Beijing. The People鈥檚 Liberation Army (PLA)鈥檚 movements around Taiwan remained relatively steady both before and following Taiwan鈥檚 election. PLA activity around Taiwan increased 18 months ago, and it is no longer uncommon to see reports of a dozen or more PLA aircraft and naval vessels around Taiwan daily. But with no obvious change in its military posture, Beijing鈥檚 response so far appears mostly rhetorical. China鈥檚 Taiwan Affairs Office attempted to undermine the election results by saying the DPP does not represent the majority of Taiwanese people鈥攄espite Lai winning the popular vote. China鈥檚 foreign ministry then condemned the countries that offered their support to Taiwan, including a specific call out of Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.

5. Lai鈥檚 America-forward foreign policy will need an answer from Washington. During the campaign, Lai said his policies will largely continue those of the Tsai administration, which emphasized engagement with the US. This is one of the reasons Lai asked Bi-Khim Hsiao to run as his vice president; she has been Taiwan鈥檚 representative in Washington for the last several years. Much of the Lai administration鈥檚 success will depend on how much the president can leverage Taiwan鈥檚 relationship with America to bolster Taiwan鈥檚 security and create new economic opportunities. Wages, inflation, and housing were some of the other key issues in the most recent election, along with Taipei-Beijing relations. Washington has already shown a willingness to move forward with Taiwan on issues like trade negotiations and a double-tax agreement. But Taiwanese officials have been hoping to sign a bilateral trade agreement with Washington for years.