When Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega returned to power as president of Nicaragua last year, there were encouraging signs that this time would be different. Ortega聮s first term as president in the 1980s was marred by failed socialist economic policies, his support of Communist revolutions in the region, and a military conflict with the U.S.-backed Contra rebels. Even so, at the time of Ortega聮s election in late 2006, Latin American democrats hoped this onetime revolutionary had abandoned his radical past in favor of a more pragmatic, pro-growth, and pro-American future.
There were plenty of reasons to be optimistic. It appeared that Ortega had finally begun to recognize that free markets and business investment held the keys to prosperity for Nicaragua, one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere. (Some 50 percent of Nicaraguans live in poverty.) He repeatedly assured the public that he desired a good working relationship with the United States. He put foreign and domestic investors at ease by maintaining his support for the Central American Free Trade Agreement. And he insisted he would continue pursuing the free-market polices initiated by his predecessors in the center-right Liberal Party.
Unfortunately, despite his pre-election rhetoric, Ortega has started to slip back into his old ways: strengthening friendships with radical leaders around the world, initiating regional disputes, dismissing promises made to the Nicaraguan people, and publicly denouncing both capitalism and America.
Only a year ago, his brother, Humberto Ortega, a former military leader, stressed that the president was determined to establish a government of national unity. 聯There聮s no room for radicalisms or international alignments,聰 he said. Following his inauguration, President Ortega traveled around the region promoting the cause of Central American unity. At the time, many democratic supporters viewed his first trip to Guatemala as an attempt to distance Nicaragua from the increasingly radical governments of Venezuela, Bolivia, and Cuba.
But recently, Ortega has reverted to his old form. In September he addressed the United Nations General Assembly, where he was supposed to request humanitarian aid for the victims of Hurricane Felix. Instead, Ortega used the world stage to rant against global capitalism and denounce 聯the enemy聰聴--America. This is the language of Venezuela聮s Hugo Ch谩vez and other radical Latin populists.
Ortega has started to slip back into his old ways: strengthening friendships with radical leaders, initiating regional disputes, dismissing promises made to the Nicaraguan people, and publicly denouncing both capitalism and America.
Indeed, Ortega聮s burgeoning alliance with Ch谩vez became even more apparent last November at the Ibero-American Summit in Santiago, Chile. After Ch谩vez repeatedly accused former Spanish prime minister Jos茅 Mar铆a Aznar of being a 聯fascist聰 and then asked the Spanish king if he had prior knowledge of Venezuela聮s 2002 coup, which briefly removed Ch谩vez from power, King Juan Carlos turned to Ch谩vez and said, 聯Why don聮t you shut up?聰 Ortega fueled the controversy聴and underscored his partnership with Ch谩vez聴by accusing Spain of having intervened in Nicaragua聮s elections, which prompted Juan Carlos to storm out of the summit.
More alarming than the Ch谩vez-Ortega alliance is the small network of Latin American regimes that have boosted their strategic ties with theocratic Iran. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made several trips to the region, most recently this past September, when he stopped in Venezuela, Bolivia, and Nicaragua. During his latest tour, the Iranian leader claimed that he and Ortega 聯have common interests, common enemies, and common goals.聰 During an earlier Ahmadinejad visit, Ortega honored his Iranian guest with two of Nicaragua聮s highest medals of honor, the Liberty Medal and the Rub茅n Dar铆o Medal. It was no surprise that, in his September speech at the UN, Ortega defended Iran聮s (and North Korea聮s) right to pursue nuclear technology. 聯Even if they want nuclear power for purposes that are not peaceful,聰 he said, 聯with what right does [the U.S.] question it?聰
Ortega has agreed to help Iran and Venezuela finance a $350 million deepwater port at Monkey Point along Nicaragua聮s Caribbean coast. The countries plan to lay down pipelines, rail tracks, and highways to connect this port to the Pacific Ocean. Iran has even established official diplomatic relations with Nicaragua, raising concerns among other Central American countries and also among the Israelis. During a recent television interview, Ehud Eitam, Israel聮s ambassador to Costa Rica and its non-resident ambassador to Nicaragua, said it is difficult not to be suspicious of Iran聮s intentions when its Nicaraguan embassy is heavily staffed with members of the Republican Guard, which the United States has branded a terrorist organization. In Eitam聮s view, Iran聮s presence in Nicaragua is clearly 聯a matter of intelligence.聰
While cozying up to new friends in Caracas and Tehran, Ortega is also alienating many of Nicaragua聮s old ones. In a speech delivered last month, he referred to the leader of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, a terrorist guerrilla group deeply enmeshed in cocaine trafficking and hostage taking, as a 聯dear brother.聰 This infuriated the Colombian government.
Closer to home, Ortega has already damaged the Nicaraguan economy, which had been on an upward trajectory since he first left office in the early 1990s. (In fact, during the 16-year period following Ortega聮s first presidency, the Nicaraguan government privatized more than 350 state enterprises, cut inflation, and reduced its foreign debt.) Ortega initially worked to assuage fears in the business community that he would scare away foreign investment. In January 2007, he told Cargill CEO Warren Staley that 聯you can count on Nicaragua as a country that is willing to continue working and increasing those investments.聰
Yet despite his brief flirtation with market-oriented policies, Ortega is now moving Nicaragua back in a socialist direction. He recently asked his cabinet to come up with a plan for nationalizing the country's oil imports, and he appears determined to abandon all responsible macroeconomic policies.
This shift has not gone unnoticed. In recent months, Ortega聮s poll numbers have plummeted, the political opposition has become increasingly aggressive in their attacks, and Ortega has backtracked a bit on his anti-American outbursts. Last February, only 17 percent of Nicaraguans told pollsters that their country was headed in the wrong direction. By June, that number had swelled to 57 percent. A poll released earlier this month found that more than 60 percent of Nicaraguans believe Ortega is an authoritarian ruler.
Nicaragua聮s opposition parties have formed an alliance known as the 聯bloc against the dictatorship,聰 which includes a splinter group of Ortega聮s Sandinistas. It has been launching more frequent and forceful attacks in recent months. The reformist opposition is now working to extend the so-called 聯Framework Law聰 in order to ensure that Ortega聮s political appointments have to be approved by Congress.
Perhaps Ortega is feeling the pressure. Despite his anti-American grandstanding, the Nicaraguan president has not completely turned away from the United States. There have been recent U.S.-Nicaraguan discussions, for instance, over the Soviet-era missiles left over from Nicaragua聮s civil war in the 1980s. Ortega is reportedly negotiating with the United States to get helicopters and medicine in exchange for these missiles. Whatever his public rhetoric, he continues to show interest in working with U.S. officials behind closed doors.
Just as Venezuelans stood up to Ch谩vez in a referendum that would have greatly expanded the president聮s powers, it appears that the Nicaraguan people and political opposition are setting up roadblocks for Ortega. Concerns in the business community may curb Ortega聮s more foolish economic policies and help prevent the country from spiraling deeper into poverty and despair.
The situation in Nicaragua is serious. Let聮s hope the political opposition can continue to check Ortega聮s turn to the radical left and help redirect Nicaragua onto a path of political and economic freedom.