Last week I how the foreign-policy establishment, both Democratic and Republican, has used Donald Trump to whitewash a bipartisan catalog of catastrophic failures abroad dating back to Sept. 11, 2001. Whichever party鈥檚 recent-vintage foreign policy poison you choose to drink, it鈥檚 hard to argue that America鈥檚 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Arab revolutions, the Iran nuclear agreement, a resurgent Russia, the refugee crisis threatening to destabilize Europe, the comically disastrous nuclear agreements with North Korea, or the continuing rise of China as a geopolitical and economic powerhouse have made American lives more secure, or shown that the wisdom of our elites is especially wise.
Trump isn鈥檛 responsible for any of that mess, I argued. Nor, as it turns out, is he going to drain the swamp in Washington, D.C., like he promised his voters. Why? Because he鈥檚 taking orders from the swamp. How do I know that? Afghanistan.
鈥淎fghanistan is a complete waste,鈥� Trump of the Afghanistan war several years before he decided to run for President, and he repeated his criticism of the war loudly and often on the campaign trail. Last month, though, Trump pulled an about-face and to send perhaps 4,000 troops鈥攎aybe more, possibly less鈥攖o Afghanistan to join the 8,500 already there. Questioned by reporters about the exact number of U.S. troops headed to Afghanistan, the Pentagon declined to give a number.
Republican and Democratic lawmakers are pleased that Trump has learned to take advice from the generals who now play such a large role in his administration鈥攚ith former Marine General James Mattis in the Pentagon, another former Marine four-star John Kelly as White House chief of staff, and active duty army General H.R. McMaster presenting foreign policy options to the President from his post as National Security Adviser. But for all the administration鈥檚 military brain-power, critics still that the Trump team doesn鈥檛 have a clear vision of what victory in Afghanistan would look like. In other words, there is no Afghanistan strategy. Weirdly, critics of Obama鈥檚 Afghanistan policy said the same thing鈥攖here鈥檚 no larger strategy鈥攁nd they were right. The same was true of the Bush White House. So why over 16 years have the past three administrations failed to craft a sound Afghanistan strategy?
Afghanistan wasn鈥檛 the 鈥済ood war,鈥� as Barack Obama suggested鈥攊t was just the war that everyone could agree on鈥攖hus it was useful and profitable. Obama鈥檚 entire campaign was premised on his opposition to the Iraq war, but he couldn鈥檛 be a total squish, so Afghanistan, by comparison, was the campaign America needed to win鈥攅ven after a Navy SEAL team killed Osama bin Laden and the goalposts shifted. And now America is stuck and the problem isn鈥檛 that we don鈥檛 know how to get out but rather that no one really wants to get out. There鈥檚 too much money invested in staying the course, no matter how long that may be. Trump decided against setting a deadline for troop withdrawal, lest our enemies think that America is not committed to wasting the energy, optimism, generosity, wit, and native intelligence of its young men and women by dispatching them to the other side of the world to fight against religious fanatics in perpetuity. That is, there is no end in sight.
It should pain any American to say so, but the fact is that even with 2,500 Americans dead, the Pentagon has regarded Afghanistan as something of a boon鈥攍ots of combat leads to lots of promotions for lots of officers while keeping open production lines for all sorts of weapons and systems. Yes, Afghanistan has meant American jobs, and especially in Washington, D.C., where it feeds not just the military-industrial complex but also reconstruction and aid development organizations, who make money by cleaning up and fixing what the military breaks. Naturally, the Pentagon, and every other government agency along with NGOs, etc., was going to argue for Trump to stay in Afghanistan鈥擜fghanistan is the swamp and Trump now owns it.
There is no military or political strategy to win Afghanistan because it is not a strategic territory. Unless you鈥檙e Pakistan, of course, in which case Afghanistan is where your armed forces regroup in the event of a massive Indian invasion before the decision is made to empty your nuclear arsenal in an exchange that likely kills tens if not hundreds of millions on the Asian subcontinent, which is an event that would surely have real-world repercussions for America, too. That is one reason why the Trump administration has highlighted our problems with Pakistan. That and the fact bin Laden was hiding out in Pakistan鈥攖o absolutely no one鈥檚 surprise.
Getting bin Laden and the other al-Qaida figures was the original rationale for going into Afghanistan鈥攖hen we were going to get out. The Taliban was simply the landlord that rented al-Qaeda space from which to attack the United States. And then post-bin Laden, the Taliban became the problem鈥攁s did al-Qaida remnants like Ayman Zawahiri, and the new kid on the block, the Islamic State, so we鈥檙e still there. But the fact that terrorists grow in Afghanistan like weeds underscores an important if unpleasant fact: Afghanistan is always going to appeal to terrorists, including those who want to kill Americans.
H.R. McMaster to fix not just Afghanistan but Pakistan, too. You can sort of see why: Pakistan鈥檚 intelligence service, the ISI, plays a double game by working with some very bad actors. Even worse is the prospect that the really ugly characters in the ISI would take over the nuclear file from the relatively OK guys. But here鈥檚 a gut check: We have a hard time fixing tenements in American cities that attract drug addicts鈥攚e can鈥檛 fix Afghanistan and don鈥檛 have to. With a not very sophisticated recipe of threats and actual bombing, we can pretty much deter the bad guys hiding out there who want to do something bad to America.
Oh, no we can鈥檛, says the foreign policy establishment. We owe it to Afghanistan and ourselves to solve it. I was at an event recently where several Afghan officials explained why their country was so important鈥攊f the U.S. cuts the cord, they explained, terrorists will use Afghan land to plot operations against the United States. In other words, pay us and protect us, or the bad guys will kill you. I thought to myself: You mean not even the guy who wants to build a wall can keep out terrorists traveling from Afghanistan? It seems protection schemes resonate well in Washington. Sen. Lindsey Graham that any of his colleagues who don鈥檛 support Trump鈥檚 to keep Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists are therefore responsible for the next Sept. 11. That makes a nice bookend to the fact that no one in Washington has yet admitted responsibility for the last Sept. 11.
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The nearly two-decade disaster that is the Afghanistan campaign suggests that the 2004 Democratic candidate for president was correct on at least one very important point: Stopping terrorism, John Kerry, is a police and intelligence matter. But even if you鈥檙e going to use the U.S. military instead of policemen to shut down terrorist safe havens that threaten the West, then it鈥檚 Belgium, the headquarters for IS鈥檚 external operations, rather than Afghanistan that should be at the top of the list. After all, that鈥檚 where most terror plots targeting the West actually come from.
Another upside to concentrating the nation-building energies of the Pentagon on Belgium rather than Afghanistan is that it鈥檚 probably easier鈥攁nd more pleasant鈥攖o train a dysfunctional European gendarmerie that uses terror alerts as a cover to throw European-style . Afghanistan鈥檚 police force, on the other hand, seemingly as a matter of civic pride, with commanders competing to see whose 鈥�bacha bazi鈥� adolescent sex slave is the most beautiful. The American military is compelled to look the other way at this revolting, criminal behavior, in order to placate allies in a war of no strategic significance. That can鈥檛 be good for America.
To persuade Trump that Afghanistan wasn鈥檛 hopeless, McMaster reportedly the former owner of the Miss USA pageant a 1972 of three women wearing miniskirts on a street in Kabul. And where, Trump might have asked, is the archival photograph from Kabul of an Afghan central government? Right鈥攖here isn鈥檛 one because it never existed.
In the 1950s and 鈥�60s there was a somewhat liberal coterie in Kabul, says one Afghanistan expert who entered the country after the 2001 invasion. 鈥淭hat changed with the Soviet invasion in 1979,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd people from the countryside filled the cities鈥攖hat鈥檚 how it became conservative.鈥� It鈥檚 probably not that difficult to make Kabul blossom once again, just by cleansing the city of those who don鈥檛 like to see women in miniskirts, but what about the rest of the country?
Maybe we can change their minds. That鈥檚 the of U.S. counterinsurgency strategy or COIN, 鈥渁 troop-heavy, time-consuming, expensive doctrine of trying to win over the locals by building roads, bridges, schools and a well-functioning government.鈥� The problem with COIN, explained one Afghanistan hand, is that the natives do not want those things. 鈥淲e want to do nice things for them, so they鈥檒l be nice to us,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut it amounts to a fundamental political change in local dynamics. Where you put these things is a political decision that empowers some locals at the expense of others; what you teach in those schools is a political decision. We are destabilizing local populations by building roads, schools, and hospitals. They may need them but they don鈥檛 want them.鈥�
But of course, COIN and its concomitant nation-building measures were never exclusively about what was good for the people of Afghanistan. Rather, it鈥檚 part of a massive American boondoggle that feeds both the right and the left, the military and the development-aid community, or those people who bid on multi-million dollar U.S. AID contracts to build bridges, schools, and roads. For 2017, the United States pledged $4.7 billion to Afghanistan.
It鈥檚 not a coincidence that as the Pentagon budget soared after 2001 to fund Washington鈥檚 war on terror, so did the population of the metro Washington, D.C., area. In the last 15 years, the District of Columbia alone surged 100,000 to a four-decade of 681,170. They came for the job and stayed when their jobs became permanent. Washington never faced the same financial crisis as the rest of the country because the rest of America was funding Washington鈥檚 growth, thanks in part to the Afghanistan war.
It was the same in the D.C. suburbs, where war money helped shape the new demographics in northern Virginia, which turned the state from in its overall voting habits. Oh, maybe you thought it was just Republicans, military contractors, arms manufacturers, and the like who profited. Nope, funding for the war, and associated nation-building and development efforts, also went to the stability and peace builders, development aid workers who identify as Democrats, progressives even.
See the nice middle-aged woman in the pussy hat at the Women鈥檚 March protesting against racist Trump? She works for a $700 million organization built largely on the contracts won for development work in Afghanistan. She鈥檚 not a warmonger; she just has a personal financial investment in an ongoing military campaign in which dead Afghans and Americans oil the larger machine that pays for Soccer Stars afterschool for her kids.
For 16 years, both parties have been happy to wet their beaks in the trough. And now Afghanistan is the new normal: a war of no strategic consequence waged in no small part to keep a small but influential constituency inside the Beltway employed, regardless of how many lives, American and Afghan, are sacrificed in the process. That is what real corruption looks like.