p(firstLetter). June 2018 may turn out to be a critical month for the Indo-Pacific. In addition to the upcoming U.S.-North Korea summit, this month has already seen the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Japan鈥檚 Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other dignitaries reiterated their shared commitment to the region. Modi, during his first Shangri-La on June 1, spoke of the need for a 鈥渇ree, open, inclusive鈥� Indo-Pacific, a 鈥渞ules-based order,鈥� equal and open access to resources and common spaces, and freedom of navigation. Secretary Mattis, for his part, emphasized that the Indo-Pacific was America鈥檚 鈥減riority theater,鈥� stating: 鈥淢ake no mistake: America is in the Indo-Pacific to stay.鈥� Just a few days ahead of the summit, Mattis had even the U.S. Pacific Command as the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, 鈥渋n recognition of the increasing connectivity between the Indian and Pacific Oceans.鈥�
Mattis also used his Shangri-La speech to criticize China in no uncertain terms. He noted that China鈥檚 policy in the South China Sea 鈥渟tands in stark contrast to the openness our strategy promotes.鈥� A few days earlier, on May 28, Secretary Mattis had informed reporters that the United States will of using naval exercises to send a message to Beijing: that the United States and its allies do not accept China鈥檚 territorial claims in the South China Sea and will push back against China鈥檚 militarization of the contested waters.
These comments from the U.S. Defense Secretary come just a few days after within 12 nautical miles of four artificial islands created by China in the disputed Paracel island chain, off Vietnam鈥檚 eastern coast. They also come on the heels of Washington鈥檚 decision to to participate in the RIMPAC exercises, the world鈥檚 largest international maritime warfare exercises, which involve more than 20 countries from across the Pacific.
American grand strategy for Asia and the Pacific, since the end of the Second World War, has centered on creating an Asian diplomatic and security architecture that rests on American economic and military might, combined with a network of partners and allies across the region. The economic and military rise of China over the past two decades has posed an increasing challenge to this American preeminence.
Starting with the East and South China Sea, China鈥檚 strategy has been to change the status quo gradually, building bases and ports and creating artificial islands to present the world with a new reality. At the same time Beijing claims its goals are peaceful and benevolent, encompassing activities like helping countries build highways and ports鈥攅ven though both of these are dual-use and financed by high-interest loans that leave countries indebted to Beijing for decades.
In the past few months Washington has been steadily pushing back against Chinese expansionism. In April 2018, China conducted in the South China Sea personally presided over by President Xi Jinping. According to reports, more than 10,000 military personnel participated in the drills and more than 48 naval vessels and 76 fighter jets were involved. American and Japanese reports suggest that in addition to fighter jets China also deployed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to its three artificial islands in the South China Sea during these naval exercises.
Beijing has asserted of these 鈥渘ecessary national defense facilities鈥� had 鈥渘othing to do with militarization鈥� and was within its rights. Yet as former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated in October 2017, China has consistently 鈥渢he international, rules-based order鈥� by its 鈥減rovocative actions鈥� in the South China Sea that 鈥渄irectly challenge the international law and norms.鈥�
Echoing those words this past week, Secretary Mattis that there is 鈥渁 very steady drumbeat of freedom of navigation operations鈥� in the South China Sea and 鈥渢here is only one country that seems to take active steps to rebuff them or state their resentment of them.鈥�
p(firstLetter). The U.S. strategy of pushback is being supported by its allies and partners in the region. With a population of more than one billion, India is the other country with sufficient manpower to match China鈥檚. India has also consistently viewed China鈥檚 expanding influence with suspicion.
While the Indian Ocean region is critical to India, the country鈥檚 leadership is increasingly focused on the Pacific. In late May 2018, Indonesia and India whereby Indonesia has given India access to the strategically located island of Sabang, at the northern tip of Sumatra and less than 300 miles from the Strait of Malacca. India will invest in the dual-use port and economic zone of Sabang and build a hospital there. Indian naval ships and submarines will also visit the deep-water port.
In early May 2018, for the first time since World War II, India has decided to station with the aim to strengthen India鈥檚 hold over the crucial Malacca, Sunda, and Lumbok Straits and the Straits of Ombai Wetar and the eastern Indian Ocean Region. The Indian Navy has positioned warships in the region and also deployed two floating docks to repair and refurbish warships.
Japan and the United Kingdom have also increased their visible presence and activities in the South China Sea. In June 2017, in another first since World War II, Japan鈥檚 largest warship, to participate in the International Maritime Review held in Singapore. The Izumo鈥檚&苍产蝉辫; is part of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe鈥檚 military and diplomatic push against Chinese assertiveness.
The United Kingdom plans , the HMS Queen Elizabeth and the HMS Prince of Wales, to the South China Sea for freedom of navigation exercises. According to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, the first assignments of these two new aircraft carriers will be to 鈥渧indicate our belief in the rules-based international system and in the freedom of navigation through those waterways which are absolutely vital for world trade.鈥�
, , , the Philippines, and have also condemned China鈥檚 moves and recently deployed their naval assets in the South China Sea. On May 29, the Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte asserted that the in opposition to Beijing鈥檚 red lines, warning against any unilateral Chinese effort to mine the sea鈥檚 resources. If 鈥渁nyone gets the natural resources in the Western Philippines Sea, South China Sea,鈥� Duterte would be ready to 鈥済o to war,鈥� according to his Foreign Minister Alan Peter Cayetano. Ever since President Duterte took power in June 2016, Manila has come under heavy criticism for taking a soft line towards China. But with increasing tensions in the South China Sea and rising Chinese militarization, it is not surprising that even Manila is changing its tune.
In April 2018, China on Fiery Cross Reef on the Spratly Islands as a 鈥渕essage about China鈥檚 determination to protect its territory and maritime rights.鈥� Over the past few years China has built artificial islands, attempted to establish a no-fly zone, and deployed anti-aircraft missiles to the South China Sea. The Chinese appear to be adopting the famous principle from the : 鈥淩ight, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.鈥�
If the United States and its partners and allies around the world want to send a message, it needs to be in a language Beijing will understand. A steady drumbeat of warships, aircraft carriers, naval exercises, and drills is important to balance China鈥檚 militarization in the region. However, if the aim is to contain Chinese activity, then there must also be some mechanism to prevent China from establishing hegemony over the region by deploying nuclear-capable bombers, ballistic missile submarines, and nuclear missiles. The recent pushback in the South China Sea is a welcome development, but much more needs to be done to counter China鈥檚 actions鈥攂efore it is too late.