In this newsletter from Hudson鈥檚 Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East, Research Fellow Ahmad Hashemi gives a look beyond the mainstream discourse on Iran. For the latest important and revealing developments from the country, .
Resistance Axis
News about Iran鈥檚 proxy network in the Middle East.
Iran Equips Surrogates with Its Latest Technologies
Iran鈥檚 investment in a robust military industrial complex is paying off. The Islamic Republic鈥檚 proxy wars are increasingly tech-savvy and decreasingly labor-intensive for Tehran.
At the Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition (DIMDEX), Iran naval weapons and full-sized models of unmanned aerial vehicles, including one named 鈥淕aza.鈥� Additionally, the Houthis to have a hypersonic cruise missile.
Why it matters. The United States and its allies鈥� reluctance to retaliate to Iran鈥檚 attacks has emboldened Tehran and validated its strategy of maintaining plausible deniability while arming proxies with increasingly sophisticated weapons.
Hajji Washington
Developments in Iran-US relations.
Iran Exports 鈥淒eath to America鈥� Chants
Thanks to Iran鈥檚 information warfare, Chicagoans do not need to leave home to hear 鈥渄eath to America and death to Israel鈥� chants. A group of purported anti-war activists at the Teamsters Union鈥檚 Chicago headquarters, led by an organizer whom the Daily Caller identified as Shabbir Rizvi.
Why it matters. Shabbir Rizvi is an Iranian regime supporter and Hamas sympathizer who poses as a peace activist. He has on Iran鈥檚 English-language television network, Press TV, as a political analyst and has published numerous anti-Israel op-eds.
Middle Easterners view people chanting anti-American slogans on US soil as a sign of America鈥檚 weakness. Though the Iranian government is a pariah in the West, these protests demonstrate that Tehran has managed to expand its network of influence.
Love Triangle
On the alliance among Ali Khamenei鈥檚 Iran, Xi Jinping鈥檚 China, and Vladimir Putin鈥檚 Russia.
Iran, Russia, and China鈥檚 Joint Naval Drill
China, Iran, and Russia a joint naval drill, Marine Security Belt 2024, in the Gulf of Oman, a crucial waterway near the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
Why it matters. US Central Command leader General Michael Kurilla sounded the alarm to lawmakers about Iran鈥檚 tightening of its ties with Russia and China. He a House Armed Services Committee hearing that 鈥淚ran is reliant on China, and Russia is reliant on Iran.鈥� North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also in April that autocratic regimes are forming an 鈥渁xis of evil鈥� to challenge Western democracies.
Iran and Israel
The latest on the shadow war between the Islamic Republic and the Jewish state.
Iran Is Paranoid about Mossad鈥檚 Involvement in Baluchistan
As Iran struggles to control its eastern borders, conspiracy theories about Mossad鈥檚 involvement in ethnic riots are spreading in Tehran.
Iran鈥檚 Sistan and Baluchistan Province is the most impoverished region in the country, mostly because the Baluch people are Sunni and non-Persian. Iran鈥檚 systemic discrimination against the Baluch has given rise to numerous militant separatist groups in the province.
Jaish al-Adl, one Baluch separatist group, occasionally attacks Iran鈥檚 security forces. On April 4, the Iranian media a series of attacks. The militants claimed they targeted six regime outposts. During these clashes, dozens of Iranian Army and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) troops were killed.
Why it matters. Iran has succeeded in expanding its influence in the region but still cannot stabilize its borders. Tehran labels Sunni Baluch separatist groups as 鈥溾� and the Baluch as 鈥渇oreign nationals鈥� and 鈥渘on-Iranians.鈥�
Even Iranian opposition groups have unfavorable views of the Baluch. US-based former political prisoner and Milton Friedman Prize winner Akbar Ganji that the Baluch militants who engaged in clashes with Iranian forces are Mossad mercenaries.
Iran vs. Aniran
Tehran鈥檚 relations with non-Iranian peoples in and around the Islamic Republic.
Iranians Claim That Israel鈥檚 Embassy in Azerbaijan Is a Legitimate Target
Iran promised a response to a suspected Israeli missile attack that Iran鈥檚 consulate in the Syrian capital of Damascus and killed seven people, including a top IRGC commander. In the aftermath of the attack, Iran-affiliated social media accounts advocated striking Israel鈥檚 diplomatic missions in the region, including in Azerbaijan.
Member of Iranian Parliament Rashidi Kuchi that Iran should 鈥渙penly and directly target one of the diplomatic centers of the Zionists in one of the countries of the region, preferably Azerbaijan.鈥�
Why it matters. Iran is suspicious of its neighbors who maintain cordial ties with Israel. October 7 was, among other things, a move to stop normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Iran is alarmed by the Azerbaijan-Israel friendship and wants nothing more than to sabotage it. But Tehran is also concerned about potential backlash from Iranian Azerbaijanis if the IRGC fires missiles at Baku. An Azerbaijani activist warned that an attack on the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan would exacerbate tensions between Azerbaijani Turks and Persians in Iran.
In Iran鈥檚 political literature, and among Persian nationalists in particular, a 鈥淭urk-o-Fars war鈥濃攁 confrontation between Azerbaijani Turks and Persians鈥攊s a taboo term and a situation that the regime needs to avoid at all costs.
The Streets of Tehran
The most debated news, issues, and topics of amusement among Iranians.
The Iran-Israel Aerial Confrontation Changed the Equation
Iranians hold differing opinions about the significance of Iran-Israel strikes and counterstrikes. Alam Saleh, a professor of political science at the Australian National University, that Iran鈥檚 daring strike shows that Tehran is a nuclear threshold country. Iran鈥檚 attack suggests that the decision to build nuclear weapons is political, not a matter of Tehran鈥檚 technical capability, Saleh argued.
Hooshang Amirahmadi of Rutgers University that Iran must take an 鈥渆ye for an eye鈥� approach: Iran must hit an Israeli consulate as a proportional response. He also said that 鈥淚ran should not worry about the US reaction. The US cannot do a damn thing.鈥�
US-based political activist Mehdi Jalali that the attack revealed that Israel鈥檚 military might is a myth. He claimed that Israel鈥檚 weak and insufficient retaliation dealt an even bigger blow to Israel鈥檚 deterrence.
Why it matters. Perception and deterrence matter. Though Iran failed to inflict major pain on Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles on April 13, many Iranians believe that Israel鈥檚 air superiority and near-invincibility are no longer certain.
Beyt Update
News from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei鈥檚 office and official residence.
Smash the Head of the Snake!
Reactions to Israel鈥檚 retaliation to Iran鈥檚 strike were mixed. Some Iranians welcomed an Israeli counterattack, messages like, 鈥淚srael! Smash the snake鈥檚 head!鈥� Others Israel to 鈥渟trike at the Beyt!鈥� One user Iranians need 鈥渢o launch a massive online campaign and urge Israel to directly strike the supreme leader鈥檚 office.鈥� A graffiti artist , 鈥淚srael! Attack Iran and we will pour into the streets!鈥� Another asked Israel to : 鈥淐yrus the Great saved the Jews [in Babylon] and now it is time for Israel [to return the favor by striking the Mullah regime in Iran].鈥�
There were that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders had gone into hiding in expectation of Israel鈥檚 retaliation. Kayhan London stated that Khamenei had into an Israeli trap, implying that the supreme leader was anxious about the response to his attack.
Why it matters. Despite the regime鈥檚 antisemitic propaganda, Iranians are distrustful of their government鈥檚 anti-Israel rhetoric. Some Iranians are among the most pro-Israel people in the region. Public expression of pro-Israeli sentiments is dangerous, but many managed to break their silence on anonymous social media accounts.
Domestic dissent in the face of a potential war with Israel scares the mullahs. Citing a source in Iran, the US-based Persian-language website IranWire that Iran鈥檚 Ministry of Intelligence recently held special meetings aimed at studying the likelihood of 鈥渞iots鈥� in the event of a potential Israeli attack on Iran.