p(firstLetter). Sankt Paul in the Lavanttal is a sleepy town nestled into the foothills of the southern Austrian Alps. By any measure, it is an idyllic hinterland 鈥� a region where apiaries and orchards crisscross brooks as clear as glass. At its heart sits a 900-year old Benedictine abbey, affectionately known as the of the state of Carinthia, and a renowned private school that educated such Austrian legends as the actor Paul H枚rbiger and the war reporter Friedrich Orter. If you listen closely, you will hear the occasional rumor that a young Josip Broz Tito studied there, too.
Sankt Paul is a town without problems, enmeshed in a relatively robust economy. And yet, in Austria鈥檚 recent elections, it overwhelmingly for the populist-protest Freedom Party (FP脰), along with the rest of the state. As elsewhere in the West, the explanation lies in the widening gulf between elite expectations and rural mores. Unlike elsewhere, however, this is not the first time the country has experienced a surge in populism. In 1999, the FP脰鈥檚 J枚rg Haider shot to international fame after taking second place in national elections. Two years later, after governing with the center-right Austrian People鈥檚 Party (脰VP), his party was in shambles.
As the leader of the 脰VP, Sebastian Kurz is now negotiating a government with the FP脰鈥檚 Heinz-Christian Strache, just as his predecessor Wolfgang Sch眉ssel did with J枚rg Haider. Both Kurz and Strache would do well to recall the success and failure of their predecessors. The test for them is who will emerge triumphant in this potential coalition: the traditional center-right or the new populist rebellion. The outcome will serve as a roadmap for the rest of Europe.
I grew up in Sankt Paul during the Balkan wars 鈥� a time when more than a few Bosnians sought refuge in the area. This was the era of J枚rg Haider, the mesmerizing and omnipresent populist who made restrictions on immigration and crackdowns on crime perennial campaign promises. Haider railed against the clubby Viennese establishment and stoked Euroscepticism through appeals to Austrian patriotism. For his efforts, he was rewarded with one election victory after another, powering a quarter-century long rise that seemed destined to end in his chancellorship.
But then came Wolfgang Sch眉ssel. After the 1999 federal election, Sch眉ssel and Haider negotiated a coalition government between the 脰VP and FP脰 that elevated Sch眉ssel to the chancellorship and legitimized the FP脰. After nominating loyalists to key posts, Haider withdrew to Carinthia, where he chose to bide his time as governor. Sch眉ssel, however, had other plans than to make way for a Haider chancellorship. Once in power, he took command of the government and drove an agenda that overshadowed the FP脰, stunting Haider鈥檚 rise and leading to between Haider and his ministers. By 2002, the 脰VP had ascended to the top of Austrian politics while the FP脰 imploded in bouts of infighting.
During a visit to Sankt Paul straddling last month鈥檚 election, the signs for the FP脰鈥檚 resurgence were everywhere. In the Benedictine abbey, Syrian families strolled about while bored Middle Eastern youth hung around drinking and smoking outside a new asylum center for unaccompanied minors 鈥� located next to a local grade school. One childhood friend, now a police officer in the area, bemoaned the spike in crime in the area. None of this is lost on the local population.
For years, the ruling class in Vienna has not been up to the task. On election night, at the Socialist Party (SP脰) headquarters of outgoing Chancellor Christian Kern, functionaries chanted 鈥淵es we Kern!鈥� to celebrate the party鈥檚 showing. To be sure, the SP脰鈥檚 26.9 percent was a good result that matched their vote total from four years ago. It only managed to do so, however, by pulling cosmopolitan Viennese from the Greens, who were annihilated. As its tone-deaf election night slogan suggests, the SP脰 has lost large swaths of its rural, working-class base to the FP脰. My cousin鈥檚 husband, a longstanding working-class socialist, summarized: 鈥淭he FP脰 is the new worker鈥檚 party.鈥�
With the socialists sidelined, Kurz and Strache will now give battle for the future of Austria. Unlike Haider, Strache will insist on joining the government himself as vice chancellor and, most likely, minister of the interior. This will accomplish two goals at once: ensuring more cohesion among the FP脰 while avoiding marginalization on its key issues. Through high-profile initiatives, the FP脰 will work to leapfrog the 脰VP over the next several years.
For his part, Kurz will seek to rerun the playbook of Sch眉ssel, with whom he is in regular contact. Like Sch眉ssel, Kurz will present himself as the face of the government, seeking credit for systematic reforms that bypass the FP脰鈥檚 publicity stunts while coopting their conservative content. In effect, Kurz hopes to rob the FP脰 of initiative. Already, this is playing out on the battleground of Europe.
In March, European Union Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker a white paper on the future of Europe in which he outlined five possible scenarios for the EU鈥檚 future direction. Kurz and Strache have both embraced scenario 4, 鈥淒oing Less More Efficiently,鈥� presaging an Austrian shift toward the Visegrad bloc, a set of eastern European states linked through history with Vienna and skeptical of the EU. The upshot will be a brake on French President Emmanuel Macron鈥檚 reform project of more European integration.
To carry out the task, both the FP脰 and 脰VP will press for the foreign ministry, a post in which Kurz has shined. The FP脰 would like to see Norbert Hofer, its charismatic presidential candidate from last year, take the post. But for the 脰VP, the preferred candidate is reportedly Elisabeth K枚stinger, which brings us back to sleepy Sankt Paul. Today, K枚stinger is a member of European parliament and a close confidante of Kurz. She was raised, however, far from Brussels in and around Sankt Paul in the era of Haider, observing first hand a living laboratory of populism. If Kurz is to succeed, he would do well to take seriously K枚stinger鈥檚 insights and those of her hometown. The rest of Europe will be watching.