When Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba meets U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. on Friday, it will be hard to ignore comparisons to the many visits made by the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during Trump鈥檚 first term. This is a tricky position for Ishiba, as it鈥檚 unlikely that any current Japanese leader, or foreign leader for that matter, could replicate the close rapport Abe had with Trump.
Yet, the shadow of Shinzo Abe could loom large at the White House on Friday in more ways than one. Trump鈥檚 second term in office seems to echo Abe鈥檚 post-2012 approach as Prime Minister in several key ways.
Like Trump in 2025, Abe was in his second term as Japan's leader in 2012. Trump is only the second U.S. president in history to serve non-consecutive terms, while, interestingly, Abe was only the second post-war Japanese leader to do the same.
Both men faced approval ratings that had plummeted by the end of their first terms鈥擜be鈥檚 dipped to just under 30 percent in 2007, while Trump鈥檚 hovered around 34 percent in January 2021. However, both defied expectations and made impressive political returns.
What is now becoming clear, however, is how much Trump, like Abe, learned from his past failures. Glen Fukishima, the former CEO of Airbus Japan and a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, observed that Abe had 鈥渞eflected on his failed one-year tenure as prime minister, strategized on how to make a comeback, and formulated policies he would pursue鈥攕uch as Abenomics鈥攊f he were successful in regaining power.鈥� Both publicly, through think-tank guided work such as Project 2025 and the America First Policy Institute, and I suspect privately also, Trump and his advisors went through the same process.
Beyond preparing day one policies, the Trump team appears to have drawn similar conclusions to Abe and his advisors about the more general approach they would need to take to successfully implement their ideas. Scott Bessent, Trump鈥檚 newly confirmed Treasury Secretary, wrote in a 2022 retrospective on Abe鈥檚 economic plans, that the late Japanese leader, 鈥淸u]pon arriving in office in December 2012 . . . hit the ground running. He better understood how to manage the bureaucracy, wielding the levers of power with confidence and aplomb.鈥� Bessent also noted that Abe, 鈥渋n his second iteration . . . moved the power of the state away from the civil servants and back to the Kantei (the prime minister鈥檚 office) and the ministers.鈥�
Mr. Fukishima adds that, 鈥淎mong the lessons Abe learned from his first time at the top was the need for the prime minister to exercise control: to monitor and shape the environment to the benefit and advantage of himself and the party in power, including information, as collected, disseminated, and explained by the mass media.鈥�
Sound familiar?
It鈥檚 unclear if Trump is consciously following Abe鈥檚 playbook, but obviously one of Trump鈥檚 key cabinet members, Scott Bessent, has extensive experience with Abe鈥檚 policies and even personal ties to some of his advisers. Some have even drawn parallels between Bessent鈥檚 鈥�3-3-3鈥� economic plan and Abe鈥檚 鈥淭hree Arrows鈥� strategy to revive Japan鈥檚 economy.
The strong bond between Trump and Abe may have stemmed from more than just personal chemistry; the two shared common traits, especially when it came to nationalism. While Abe was often seen as more open to international cooperation and trade than Trump, he still understood that Japan, as a middle power, needed strong alliances to remain secure and prosperous鈥攁 sentiment Trump likely respected.
For Prime Minister Ishiba, who has had political tensions with Abe in the past鈥攊ncluding during Abe鈥檚 efforts to build trust with Trump鈥攖here may be lessons to learn. Ishiba could consider following Trump鈥檚 example and learning from Abe鈥檚 time in office, not just to navigate his own political future, but also to forge a more strategic relationship with the U.S. President.