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COP26鈥檚 Unintended Consequences: Pushing Our Allies Into China鈥檚 Hands

President, Yorktown Institute
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during the World Leaders' Summit "Accelerating Clean Technology Innovation and Deployment" session on day three of COP26 on November 02, 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Chris Jackson/Getty Images)
Caption
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during the World Leaders' Summit "Accelerating Clean Technology Innovation and Deployment" session on day three of COP26 on November 02, 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland. (Photo by Chris Jackson/Getty Images)

Careful observers of international affairs must remain attentive to the COP26 spectacle in Glasgow. The Biden administration seems fully committed to reorienting America鈥檚 Middle East policy along bizarre lines, gifting erstwhile American allies to a bellicose and ambitious China.

The most notable development from the climate summit was China鈥檚 cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

COP26鈥檚 central policy proposals necessitate transparent emissions reporting. Naturally, without this transparency, global regulatory frameworks are irrelevant. Saudi Arabia and China both refuse to reveal this data. In the former鈥檚 case, emissions statistics would provide insight into Saudi Aramco鈥檚 opaque operations, thereby reducing the House of Saud鈥檚 control on oil production and pricing. China鈥檚 objection is broader: Emissions data would offer a concrete indication of Chinese economic performance, one of the Chinese Communist Party鈥檚 (CCP) most closely guarded state secrets.

The the CCP鈥檚 attacks on high-technology executives and other wealthy individuals, and Premier Li Keqiang鈥檚 recent comments that China鈥檚 economy faces 鈥渄ownward pressures鈥� 鈥� a euphemism in Party-speak for slowing growth 鈥� show that the CCP has no interest in revealing macroeconomic data.

Indeed, economic malaise is the CCP鈥檚 greatest fear. China鈥檚 young urban professionals already are overwhelmingly bourgeois, forced into a brutal 鈥�996鈥� work culture entailing 72-hour work weeks. Two-working-adult no-child relationships as is the practice of 鈥渓ying flat鈥� to escape the CCP鈥檚 state-capitalist rat-race. Much like legitimate COVID-19 data would demonstrate the CCP鈥檚 institutional incompetence and callous brutality, legitimate economic data would contradict the CCP鈥檚 insistence that it has guided, and will continue to guide, China to a prosperous future without the uncertainty and instability of market capitalism.

Sino-Saudi cooperation at COP-26 follows on the heels of two previous events. First, in late August, a defense technology agreement. Details are limited, but the deal likely includes helicopters and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs). Saudi Arabia has sought Chinese defense cooperation for the past half-decade, beginning during the second Libyan civil war; by purchasing Chinese drones, the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to counter Turkish UCAVs, which demonstrated their lethality in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. Second, that Saudi Arabia鈥檚 sovereign wealth fund applied for a 鈥淨ualified Foreign Institutional Investor License,鈥� allowing it to buy stocks directly on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Similarly, the UAE鈥檚 Royal Strategic Partners recently with China鈥檚 Jinsha Holding for high-technology investment. Saudi Arabia and the UAE both have sought Chinese investment through and elsewhere.

Saudi Arabia鈥檚 increased contact with China and Russia is a direct result of American policy. President Biden, who hopes to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), for Saudi Arabia鈥檚 campaign in Yemen against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. His administration publicly released that found de facto Saudi ruler Mohammed Bin Salman embarrassing the long-standing U.S. ally. The administration also avoids discussing the Trump administration鈥檚 鈥淎braham Accords,鈥� the greatest breakthrough in American Middle East policy since the Egyptian-Israeli and Jordanian-Israeli peace agreements, thereby precluding the otherwise likely normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations and the development of a functional anti-Iran alliance between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Nor has President Biden improved the odds of his new Middle East policy remaining intact under a Republican administration. Indeed, he remains in the same bind and seems to employ the same political tactics as his Democratic predecessor. President Obama never seemed to consider seriously making the JCPOA a formal treaty with Senate approval and faced predictable opposition from a Republican-controlled Congress, despite the administration鈥檚 denials that the JCPOA was, legally speaking, an 鈥淓xecutive Agreement鈥� subject to presidential discretion. The Paris climate agreement suffered the same fate. In both cases, absent an overwhelming Democratic Senate majority, no president could expect either treaty to be ratified.

Biden鈥檚 insistence that the U.S. rejoin the JCPOA, and his administration鈥檚 negotiation attempts at COP26, have allowed Iran to articulate the justifiable worry of U.S. defection once again. Like his climate agenda, Biden鈥檚 Iran policy will founder in Congress.

A 2024 Republican victory would eliminate a new climate agreement and a revived JCPOA, with predictable criticism from the chattering classes at home and European liberals abroad.

As the U.S. opens to Iran, China and Russia will continue to solidify their relationship with the Gulf Arabs and Israel, with only minimal damage to their Tehran links, given the mutual recognition that the JCPOA is a tactical spoiler against American pressure, rather than a real rapprochement.

Why then, does Biden pursue a new Iran deal so doggedly? The answer, as COP26 indicates, may lie in climate policy: The Biden administration is caught between the demands of political rationality and the pressures of its own party.

Still, a shadow of realism flits in the corners of Washington鈥檚 halls of power: Although Biden proposed cutting the top-line military budget in real terms, his administration has reached a deal with Australia. The AUKUS deal, although flawed by the decades needed for Canberra to receive its first nuclear-powered submarine, makes Australia a full anti-China partner. Biden verbally committed to defending Taiwan, despite the White House鈥檚 subsequent walk-back of his statements. And at COP26, Biden criticized China鈥檚 climate inaction.

However, the left of his party has quietly but consistently argued that the U.S. should compromise security and human rights considerations for progress on climate issues. U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and national security advisor Jake Sullivan have denied this. But by further extricating the U.S. from the Middle East, the Biden administration may be able to add climate issues to the Left鈥檚 litany of grievances against America鈥檚 most hated allies (i.e., oil-producing Arabian Gulf states) outside of Israel. The Biden administration鈥檚 behavior demonstrates a worrying prioritization of abstract climate issues over the concrete realities of international relations.

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