In this week’s episode of China Insider, Miles Yu unpacks the Donald Trump–Volodymyr Zelenskyy Oval Office meeting and what the development in United States–Ukraine relations could mean for China. Next, Miles examines Thailand’s recent deportation of 40 Uyghur men to China and explains how this disturbing exchange is a strategic outcome of China’s expanding coercive campaign in the Indo-Pacific region. Lastly, Miles takes a look at Trump’s recent announcement of a US immigration visa gold card and what impact this may have on Chinese investors.
China Insider is a weekly podcast project from , hosted by , who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world’s future.
Episode Transcript
This transcription is automatically generated and edited lightly for accuracy. Please excuse any errors.
Miles Yu:
Welcome to China Insider, a podcast from the 's China Center. I am Miles Yu, senior fellow and director of the China Center. Join me each week for our analysis of the major events concerning China, China threat and their implications to the US and beyond.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
It is Tuesday, March 4th, and we have three topics this week. First Miles lend his perspective on the Trump Zelensky press conference from last Friday and what this development could mean for us, China and China Ukraine relations. Second, we revisit China's international coercion campaign this time involving Thailand and the recent deportation of 40 Uyghurs back to China. Lastly, miles examines President Trump's latest immigration proposal for a Visa gold card and what impact this may have on Chinese investors. Miles, how are you doing today?
Miles Yu:
Very good, Colin. It’s good to be with you again.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Likewise. So we start things off this week with the biggest headline from last, and that is the Trump Zelensky Oval Office Press Conference that ended on, let's say poor terms, and without resolution on the pending rare earth minerals deal that included terms for Ukraine to contribute 50% of future proceeds from state owned mineral resources, including oil and gas to an investment fund. And this fund would then work to promote the safety, security, and prosperity of Ukraine according to the agreement. While there's been extensive focus on the implications this meeting will have on the ongoing Russia, Ukraine War, a little attention has been given to how this development might impact US China and China Ukraine relations specifically. So Miles, perhaps you can start us off there with what those implications are and what exactly we can make of this meeting from Friday.
Miles Yu:
I mean, I think you use the phrase “press conference� to describe last Friday's event in the White House. It is not a press conference. It's a blowup between the two leaders of the world, which is very, very unfortunate. Now, this war in Ukraine is not just about the US-Ukraine relationship, it's not just about the Russia and US relationship, it’s [also] as much about US China relationship. Let me explain why this is the case. I think the world should really get used to the idea now that Russia is one of the many regional powers. Russia's economy is less than one 10th of China's economy, and there are only two global powers right now in the world capable of playing a global game. The war in Ukraine is, for all practical matter, a regional security problem, and not a regional security problem from the perspective of the US China competition, which is not even regional security.
Everything that involve China and United States is not regional by nature, it's global. Therefore, the Ukrainian war and the China settlement is really a matter of global security. And China and the United States are very much involved in this. US and China are the only two global powers left, and the description from the White House is a competition, strategic competition, but China doesn't necessarily look at it that way because competition must have a winner and loser. A US win means other destruction and the end of Chinese Communist party’s monopoly on power. That is absolutely unacceptable to the CCP. That's why the US-China competition in the eyes of Chinese is a matter of life and death struggle. So that's why the stakes are very high. Now let's come back to Ukraine.
Ukraine from the point of view of origin and impetus - why there's such a war. Russia and China share exactly the same definition, same idea that is the war against Ukraine, from Russia point of view is based on total denial of Ukraine as an independent and sovereign country. Russia believes what defines sovereignty is really should be historical, ethnic, and linguistic connections of the past. And China adopted exactly the same logic to express its ambition for Taiwan, for example. It's ethnic Chinese, some Chinese dynasty used to rural China many, many centuries ago. So this is why Taiwan belongs to China. So this is basically something that Russia and China share totally. That's one of the reasons why China is completely on the side of Russia over the war in Ukraine because they both believe this war is justified. They have the same logic of aggression. Secondly, the purpose of the war from the Russian point of view to ask Ukraine and is to prevent the NATO expansion.
China, however, looks at the war in Ukraine as a golden opportunity to create a strategic distraction to the United States because the United States, since Trump 1.0, has already shifted its strategic focus away from Europe away from the middle to focus on China. So that basically is one reason why China wants to sustain the war in Ukraine by providing substantial material and financial technological support for Russia and for Europeans. However, many of them are not very happy with American's shift of focus to China. They want to drag it on and for good reasons of course, but the United States again is a global player. They cannot really be bogged down in the regional conflict in Europe. So that's one of the reasons why there is so much misinterpretation and misunderstanding over the issue of ending the war in Ukraine. Now during the course of war, of course, China, as I mentioned earlier, try to prolong and sustain Russia in Ukraine war because this is a very good for China to distract the United States.
Now there's also another side of that, Colin, you mentioned about the mineral deal between US and China. Well, that's very significant because deals with something called the peace dividend. In other words, China's attitude toward Ukraine can also be described as opportunistic. It tried to be nice to Russia, but also it in a surreptitious way tried to sort of signal to the Ukrainians that China could still play a constructive role in post-war Ukraine. And this is why Trump put out this mineral deal in addition to the fact that the mineral deal is similar to a security deal, but I think there was something far more profound that is here. United States has bitter lessons from the past involvement. In other words, we sacrifice our soldiers, we spent a lot of money on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States, in the end, did not get the peace dividends in postwar Iraq and in postwar Afghanistan.
China moved in, signed all the contract, controlled the minerals, oil fields, and in Afghanistan of course the biggest military base in that region. That is Bagram Air Force base - that's basically China is in control according to the White House. So what I'm saying here is to get the mineral, get the rare earth from Ukraine is not just about Ukraine and security guarantee, it's also about China. Keep in mind, the reason why we want the rare earth materials from Ukraine is because China has virtual monopoly on rare earth materials. That is a choke hold on global economy, and that's why we have to put the China angle into that.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, and I think you touch upon it right there perfectly. Beijing will certainly attempt to seek an opportunity either insert itself into ongoing negotiation frameworks or at least be on the beneficiary side of any resulting outcome or settlement. I also want to kind of go back for a second here on something you brought up and I think it's important to our listeners note the comparisons between the two situations between the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the evolving situation in Taiwan, especially as it relates to China's involvement. Since the beginning of the conflict, there's been many, many parallels drawn saying, is China learning from this outcome, from this development? Is it learning how to circumnavigate global sanctions in order to conduct its own invasion against the island of Taiwan? So Miles, let me ask you there, what do you see as the key differences between the Russia-Ukraine war and the situation right now in Taiwan?
Miles Yu:
Well, from the aggressor's point of view, from Russia and China's point of view, they say the same thing. But from outside or point of view, particularly from the US point of view, there's a fundamental difference here between the war Ukraine and the ongoing confrontation with China over Taiwan. The issue is this, President Trump believes that he inherited the war that should never have happened. And the reason why the war in Ukraine happened during the Biden administration is because the United States gave up on deterrence. Deterrence is the defining feature of the Trump administration's national security strategy. So that's why he wanted to end the war in Ukraine because we already lost the deterrence. The war already happened. So that's why his overwhelming strategy over the issue of Taiwan is on deterrence. He is going to use all the Americans national power to deter China from taking any military action. That's why the United States is going to end war in Ukraine to focus on deterrence in Asia Pacific, particularly targeting China. So that's the fundamental difference. I think you're going to see a much tougher American deterrence buildup in Asia Pacific to let China know that any attempt to invade Taiwan military is going to be completely unacceptable to the United States. And we’re going to stop it.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
And to stay on this thread of commonalities and differences here with the latest developments from Friday. I think there's a lot of concern with the shift in US perspective, more so “sympathizing,� has been a word that's been thrown around with Russian interests. But I was wondering then to that extent, miles, do you see any kind of common concerns between the US and Russia, principally on the Russia, Ukraine war?
Miles Yu:
I think all the political problems about the US give up on the right cause. I mean United States obviously does not side with Russia, but as a matter of practical concern, you got to bring the opponents to the negotiation table. And the only way you can do that is according to President Trump, you cannot really label them as some kind of a terrible human being and they say, “hey, let's talk.� So President Trump grew up in New York. I mean he deal with bad guys and the hooligans and the people of shady characters all his life. So he knows how to navigate the terrain. So I would not be too quick to condemn President Trump as a sellout. I mean, I don't think that's really helpful. I mean, he's the president elected by 77 million Americans. So he's duly elected and he is in a democratic institution. So I don't think - you ask me about either anything in common, the share between Russia and the US.
The answer is yes, but it may not be what you think because Ukraine is a country that has been very promiscuous when it comes to arms proliferation. The chief arms purchaser from Ukrainians, a large, huge cache of Russian design, Russian manufacturer weapons, has been China. If you look at the Chinese people, Russian armies warehouse, most of the deadly weapons of modern warfare has Ukrainians fingerprints in it in the last two and a half decades. So from aircraft carrier to heavy bomber engines to air cushioned amphibious, landing craft, and to missile technology, each Ukraine, Ukraine has been selling China high end weapons at a fraction of the price that Russia would've charged. That's why Vladimir Putin was really mad at Ukraine for selling the weapons to a lot of countries, including China. From the Russian point of view, I think mostly not from the moralistic point of view, mostly from the market sharing being stolen by Ukraine.
That's what Vladimir Putin has been thinking from the US point of view, this past really promiscuous activity of weapons proliferation, particularly to enable American’s chief adversary China - that is unacceptable. I do think, however, that President Zelensky is slightly different from his predecessors who have been very, very pro-China. And however, having said that, I'm very dismayed by the fact that President Zelensky and his advisors are still harboring some illusion about China being a constructive, honest broker in the final settlement of the war in Ukraine. This is just absolutely mind boggling to think that Ukrainian leadership could just think that way after it's been clear that China has been providing substantial weapons technology and finance to Russia and in order to kill more Ukrainians and grab more Ukrainian territories. So this is something that I think from China perspective, I think Russia and the United States do have something in common, although from the different perspective and background and originate.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
And it just goes to show how incredibly nuanced the Russian-Ukraine war is, and especially as the global community works towards a resolution, hopefully peaceful and at some point soon. Turning now to our next topic for today, we visit Thailand where only last week a group of 40 Uyhgur men who were detained for over a decade were forcibly deported back to China. Now, these 40 men issued a public appeal to international human rights groups and governments to halt the deportation stating they “risk abuse, torture and even possibly death upon their return.� US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio condemned the deportation in the strongest possible terms, “Thailand's forced return of at least 40 Uyhgurs to China where they lack due process rights and where Uyghurs have faced persecution, forced labor and torture.� Miles, what can we make of this alarming development from this past week and how might the US move next on this matter?
Miles Yu:
You use, what is the word, ”horrible? horrific?� It's actually more than that. It's despicable. Thailand is a country that has some kind of mutual defense arrangement in the United States should be considered as sort of the US treaty ally. An ally is doing this. This absolutely is unacceptable. Now, pilot for practical purposes has been captured by the Chinese counter party because Thailand allowed itself to be totally dependent on China, economically, trade-wise investment, and not tourism outside of China. The second largest Chinese community is in Thailand. It has about 10 million people of Chinese descent that's really big, and Thailand is one of the few countries in that area that provide meaningful visa free access to the Chinese tourists. So Thailand's economy is very, very heavily dependent on Chinese tourism making Thailand economically dependent on China even more. Now, China of course uses Thailand as a very strategic area to break so-called the blockade by the United States in South China Sea and East-Western Pacific.
That's why China invested very heavily in Thailand on Belt & Road Initiative for example. And some of the major infrastructures including high speed railway connecting China, Laos, and Thailand is not only funded by China, but also controlled by the Chinese managers and Chinese government. So there's a lot of issue about sovereignty and debt dependency. And there's also another peculiar situation in Thailand that is in 2014, there was a coup military coup that upended democratic elected government. So ever since then, the western countries, particularly the United States, have imposed sanctions on Thailand. And that's when Thailand began to shift its relationship toward China. And the relationship bilaterally began to warm up and China saw this opportunity and sold the military of Thailand, a large quantity of high item weapons including submarines and tanks in particular. And Thailand, of course wants to diversify itself from its traditional reliance on the US for weapons supply. Thailand and China have developed some very cozy military joint exercises schemes, and so they have a much stronger defense cooperation there. While in the meantime, China will pretty much like to devour annex virtual the entire South China Sea, including many of Thailand's neighbors. So this is one of the reasons why I think - it's the Thai government that decided to send this 40 Uyghurs back to China. Now, there is also the understanding that why this is horrible, this is despicable because Chinese justice system is like a pit of abuse and rights violations. And that's the reason why there's an entire demonstration in Hong Kong in 2019/2020, because Hong Kongers would not want to be subject to Chinese system of justice or injustice, whatever we call it. And just because of extradition law, now Thailand government is helping the Chinese to enhance its transnational repression. And this is absolutely abhorrent. And I think in the Thai government should suffer from international sanctions and all kinds of other boycotts.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, and I should also just want to clarify a couple other points here too. I think in addition to the appeals made by the group of the 40 men here, there was a letter actually sent to the Thai government back in January earlier this year by a group of UN experts who said that 23 of the 48 men remaining in detention were reportedly suffering serious health conditions including diabetes, kidney dysfunction, paralysis of the lower body among many, many other things. And now to add this into the context is a tremendous human rights violation. But I also want to tie this back in, I think especially given our discussions over the past several weeks and before in prior China Insider episodes regarding China's increased coercive operations specifically in the Indo-Pacific. And I think if you analyze that a bit further, you can see why Thailand has become a primary focus of these operations. But I kind of want to ask you, Miles, given this development, what does this tell us necessarily about Beijing's coercive playbook and potential future implications for the broader Indo-Pacific deterrent strategy and security that the US and its allies has going on right now?
Miles Yu:
Well, China's regime is mostly notoriously known for its rights abuse, and China also is known for having a global economy, for having created a global dependency on China. So you tie this together, China obviously has never hesitated for a second to use the economic power and the global dependency on China to continue export the rights abuse. This is a very good example. Now it's not like Thailand government doesn't have an option. Thailand does not have to [cater to] China, but they chose really to suck up to China because the government of Turkey, which believes share some kind of ethnic and religious affinity connection with Uyghurs, has repeatedly offer to take those Uyghurs language in Thailand. Over the years, high Turkey government is totally willing to provide passports to those poor Uyghurs basically the refugees and Thai government has refused repeatedly. And that's even another abomination because it's shows how much the Thai government is under the spell of the Chinese party.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
And that'll be something that we're definitely going to be monitoring in the next couple of weeks. Here is the development of this issue moving forward. But for the time we have today, we're moving to our final topic and that is the recently announced plan for a Gold Card visa. So last week, President Trump proposed the new gold card as a replacement for the existing EB-5 Immigrant Investor visa program, which allowed foreign investors of large sums of money that create or preserve US jobs to become permanent residents. Trump added that the gold card could be purchased by investors for roughly $5 million, but further details would be announced in the coming weeks here. Miles, kind of a two-part question here for you then, so maybe you could tell us a little bit about what exactly this new Gold Card program is and what, if anything, does it have to do with China?
Miles Yu:
Well, I have to repeat the obvious, everything has to do with China. So obviously it's not a cliche. Gold card is a direct response to the discredit and long abuse US immigration project called EB-5. EB-5 is an immigration program that's been implemented by the US government since 1990s. Now, EB-5 requirement is kind of complicated, but basically any foreigner who can invest just slightly over $1 million or you can invest even fewer than that $800,000 in the targeted employment area, or “TEA.� Now in the rural area of the United States and where unemployment is high now, you can lower the bar to about $800,000. So that has been the case for a long time. Now, the predominant country that sent most of these applicants for this EB-5 visa is China. It ranged from a minimum 65% to somewhere 85% over the years. So most of them from China. So this basically has created several problems. Number one, the vetting process for this visa is very, very long. Normally it takes about eight or nine years.
Another thing is that it is totally subject to abuse. The reason why the vetting process takes so long, increasingly longer, is because there is so much fraud and so much abuse in the whole thing. And many of the projects, the Chinese government, Chinese nationals applicants turned out to be fake and the money was not there. And also there's not a requirement that is EB-5 requires you not only provide the $800,000 or $1.05 million, you also have to provide at least 10 full-time employment jobs. And that's where a lot of abuse come in. There's also a lot of unscrupulous, lawyers, realtors, and financial advisors. So it is getting very scandalous, and so, many of them have hundreds of investors and they never completed their funding. So that's the problem. So EB-5 is very simple. So President Trump rolled out about a week ago, which said- which is Gold Card- Gold Card, simplify the process and try to address the problems of the EB-5 program Gold Card simply as this, raise the bar significantly, $5 million.
Anybody who has $5 million in investment in the United States, and you get a green card, right? It's called a Gold Card. Now this is not investment oriented, this is just the money you pay to the US government as a revenue. So it's not investment oriented, it is revenue based. So that means you pay US government $5 million and they get card. You don't have to recreate this 10 jobs or there's no employment requirement. So just straight cash deal from the Trump point of view. And I think he wants to solve this national debt problem. His calculation is this, if you have 1 million people, millionaires invested $5 million each and then you got $5 trillion revenue. And then if you got the $5 million millionaires invested certain amount and you have $25 trillion revenue that would pay off the national debt. So this is basically very simple from his calculation. He said he is going to implement in this two weeks from the announcement, which we have a few days to go. So we'll see how this thing will roll out. And the significance is obviously, very obvious, that is you're going to basically get a lot of people who are much wealthier from country like China and Russia and a lot of European countries do. On the other hand, the risk for money laundering and the risk of spiking the real estate market equally high. So I don't know how it's going to what's happen, but we'll see.
Colin Tessier-Kay:
Yeah, and I think as more details become available in the next couple weeks here, I think we'll get a better sense of that. But until that point, I think that's going to be something that we're going to be looking at moving forward. But for today, unfortunately, I think that's all the time we have for in this iteration. Miles, as always, thank you for your expert analysis and insight and we'll check back again with you next week.
Miles Yu:
Alright, I'll see you next week.