Just as John Kerry was meeting with his Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif in Geneva last week as part of the ongoing negotiations over Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, Tehran announced it was building two new nuclear reactors in the Bushehr region. That鈥檚 perfectly okay, said the State Department, since that鈥檚 allowed under the Joint Plan of Action: They can build as many reactors as they want. It seems the Iranians can get away with a lot under the JPOA鈥攖he agreement reached in November 2013 that eased sanctions on Tehran鈥攂ecause the White House has hardly batted an eye over any of Iran鈥檚 actions.
Of course, the notion that it鈥檚 fine to build more reactors somewhat complicates the Obama administration鈥檚 claims that the agreement froze the Iranian nuclear program. But in the year since the interim agreement with Iran was signed, it鈥檚 become clear that the White House defines 鈥渇roze鈥� very flexibly. The agreement also acknowledges Iran鈥檚 right to enrich uranium. It allows Iran unlimited work on its plutonium reactor at complex at Arak, provided Iran does not touch the reactor itself. It ignores Iran鈥檚 ballistic missile program. All this while the administration has provided sanctions relief that has rescued the Iranian economy and encouraged European businesses to seek opportunities in Iran.
Like any competent negotiator, Iran is employing a two-track policy鈥攏egotiating while it enhances its leverage by establishing facts on the ground. Why, on the other hand, is the Obama administration forfeiting what leverage it has?
An argument commonly made by critics of the White House is that Iranian negotiators have run circles around the Americans. It is easy to think so, but the reality is that Iran, despite its worthy history as a great civilization, to say nothing of its chess masters and master carpet weavers, has not cornered the market on cunning. For every wheeler-dealer at the Iranian bazaar, America produces a dozen corporate lawyers. The Obama administration isn鈥檛 getting outhustled. If it wanted to negotiate a tougher deal, it surely could. It just doesn鈥檛 want to.
The Iranians understand that they鈥檙e pushing against an open door鈥攁cross a threshold that happens to lead to the rest of the Middle East, where Tehran鈥檚 men are busy empire-building. Tehran, as the clerical regime likes to boast, now controls four Arab capitals鈥擝aghdad, Beirut, Sanaa, and Damascus. Iran鈥檚 holdings in Syria may at present be the most threatening. Last week came reports that Iran was building missile sites in Syria.
This news was followed by a report in Der Spiegel that Syria may be trying to restart its nuclear weapons program in a site close to the Lebanese border. Some regional experts counsel caution about the report. They argue that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his Hezbollah allies do not have the time and opportunity to build a nuclear facility while they鈥檙e fighting for their lives against antiregime rebels. However, the important fact is that Syria is hiding 50 tons of enriched uranium, which went missing from the Iranian nuclear program. In other words, Iran is dispersing its nuclear infrastructure and materials. What if Iran is able to move parts of its program to Baghdad, Beirut, and Sanaa as well?
The issue isn鈥檛 just the nuclear deal. Sure, you can鈥檛 have a meaningful agreement to stop Iran鈥檚 nuclear weapons program if it鈥檚 moving material to another country. But you also can鈥檛 have a meaningful agreement if the administration doesn鈥檛 push for one. As we鈥檝e seen repeatedly over the last year, the White House refuses to call the Iranians to account. That means we have a big problem. If Iran is determined to have the bomb, and this administration is very clearly less determined to stop them from acquiring and dispersing the equipment and material it takes to build a bomb, then Iran鈥檚 growing Middle East empire will be a nuclear one.
Maybe there are enough votes in the new Republican Senate to pass more meaningful sanctions legislation. They had better act fast, because the fact is we鈥檙e soon going to reach the point when sanctions will be largely irrelevant. Sanctions will be an empty threat against an Iranian empire under a nuclear umbrella.
__This article originally appeared in the January 26, 2015, Vol. 20, No. 19 edition of the Weekly Standard.__