SVG
Commentary
The American Interest

Asking the Right Question on Climate Change

Since we can鈥檛 be certain that the globe is warming, and we can鈥檛 be certain that it isn鈥檛, we are essentially in the position of a homeowner deciding whether to buy fire insurance. Buying insurance is generally a good idea.

Stetzler
Stetzler
Senior Fellow Emeritus
(U.S. Air Force Photo by Staff Sgt. Robert M. Trujillo)
Caption
(U.S. Air Force Photo by Staff Sgt. Robert M. Trujillo)

Ask yourself whether Donald Trump is right that global warming is a 鈥渉oax,鈥� or whether progressive greens are right that the science supporting it is 鈥渟ettled,鈥� and you will be asking the wrong question. Both sides have strong political reasons for taking their positions, which do not conduce toward unbiased conclusions. Trump鈥檚 political incentives for dismissing the mounting although still inconclusive evidence that the globe is warming are strong indeed鈥攖hink West Virginia et al. For their part, Democrats cannot help but be tempted by the opportunity for government expansion that acceptance of the global warming thesis and their proposed solutions entail.

Since we can鈥檛 be certain that the globe is warming, and we can鈥檛 be certain that it isn鈥檛, we are in the position of a homeowner deciding whether to buy fire insurance. Ask yourself whether your home will burn down, and you will be asking the wrong question. Ask yourself whether there is a possibility that your home will burn down, and you will be asking the right question, the answer to which is 鈥測es.鈥� From this it follows that buying insurance against the probability of such a catastrophe is a good idea.

Similarly, ask yourself whether the globe is warming, and you would have to confess that you do not know with certainty. Ask whether there is a possibility that the globe is warming, and the answer is of course 鈥測es.鈥� And because we cannot dismiss the possibility that we are facing a change in our climate, prudence counsels that we do something. The obvious next question is: What?