Elon Musk is both the world鈥檚 richest person and one of society鈥檚 mostly visibly eccentric figures. As a result, his acquisition of Twitter has captured national intrigue in recent days.
On all sides of the cultural divide, much has been made about how Musk鈥檚 purchase might affect online speech. Some believe Musk鈥檚 purchase will prevent Twitter from being used in the future as a tool for arbitrary and arguably politically-motivated censorship, such as when it infamously blocked the New York Post's Hunter Biden laptop story from being shared on the platform. Others fear Musk鈥檚 buyout will make Twitter 鈥渇ar more toxic鈥� and 鈥渁 scary place.鈥�
Regardless of what may come for the platform and its users, Twitter is, at the end of the day, not just a technology product or social experiment. It鈥檚 a business. At the end of 2021, Twitter had 217 million monetizable daily active users posting 500 million tweets per day. It鈥檚 the 9th most-visited website globally. A quarter of U.S. adults use Twitter, spending, on average, 5.1 hours per month on the platform.
With all this in mind, then, perhaps the more pressing question should instead be: is Twitter a good buy at $44 billion?
A glance at its financial statements and corresponding figures would not provide much comfort for Mr. Musk. Twitter鈥檚 total revenues for 2021 were roughly $5 billion, with an enterprise value of $36.51 billion. This leaves Twitter with an enterprise-value-to-revenue ratio of 7.19.
Enterprise value is a measure of a company鈥檚 total value, inclusive of market capitalization, debts, and cash. A company鈥檚 enterprise-value-to-revenue ratio, in turn, compares the company鈥檚 value with its revenues.
Twitter鈥檚 ratio of 7.19 is high, indicating the company is generating fairly small revenues relative to its total value. Many retail, manufacturing, and services businesses have an equivalent ratio of less than 1. Of course, startup companies with substantial promise may have high ratios, but Twitter is a 16-year-old company. It strains credulity to suggest that Twitter is still a startup or should be treated as such.
More troubling is Twitter鈥檚 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratio of 197.5. EBITDA stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization, and is a widely used measure of a company鈥檚 profit and capacity to take on additional debt. Many businesses in traditional industries operate in a range of 5 to 15. Twitter鈥檚 ratio of 197.5 means that within the course of a year, all the money it brings in represents only half of one percent of the company鈥檚 total value.
Another commonly used measurement is Price-Earnings-to-Growth, or PEG, ratio, which reflects a company鈥檚 future expected earnings growth. Twitter鈥檚 PEG ratio cannot even be calculated because its net income has been negative in most recent quarters.
For financial investors, the relevant question is not what these ratios are in and of themselves, but instead how they compare to other firms in the same or similar industries. To that end, we prepared the following table, containing the EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, and PEG ratios for Twitter and ten other prominent online firms:
Some of these firms鈥攕uch as Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft鈥攁re much larger than Twitter. Others鈥攊ncluding Match Group, NetEase, Pinterest, SNAP, and Zynga鈥攁re either roughly the same size as Twitter or smaller. Still, regardless of their size, these three ratios are relevant measures for each of these publicly-traded companies.
Let鈥檚 examine each of these ratios for Twitter. As for Twitter鈥檚 enterprise-value-to-revenue ratio, this value, despite being high, is not unusual among this particular group. It would rank #4 in this group鈥攔oughly in the middle of the pack.
Twitter鈥檚 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratio, however, paints a much starker picture. Twitter鈥檚 ratio of 197.5 is the second worst, well above the third highest, Match Group, with 55.1. Only SNAP, with a negative ratio due to its negative EBITDA, fairs worse than Twitter. From 2017 to 2019, when Twitter was valued substantially less, this ratio was below 40. But in the years outside this range, as Twitter鈥檚 value has grown, the ratio has been either higher or negative.
As for PEG ratio鈥擳witter has not had a measurable figure in either 2020 or 2021. The only other company in the table above without a measurable PEG ratio is Zynga.
Of course, the true value of a business depends on additional factors beyond these. Nevertheless, these three values are important measures of a company鈥檚 current and future revenue-earning potential. Consequently, at least at first blush, it appears that there are many other online companies with better current and future financial prospects than Twitter.
Musk claims that he is not purchasing Twitter as a financial investment, but instead to save 鈥渃ivilization.鈥� He may ultimately succeed at both. Despite the company鈥檚 current shortcomings, of the companies reviewed in the table above, Twitter is easily the most widely-recognized of the firms of its size class. It has little debt and might see better prospects under improved management and execution strategies.
But whether Elon Musk, by himself, will truly 鈥渞evitalize鈥� 鈥渢he digital town square鈥� and consequently 鈥渢he bedrock of democracy鈥� is to be seen. Democracies rarely depend on one individual to survive.
While Mr. Musk鈥檚 crusade may be laudable for free speech proponents, he, and all investors, might also do well to reflect upon the following passage from Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman鈥檚 Capitalism and Freedom:
鈥淔ew trends could so thoroughly undermine the very foundations of our free society as the acceptance by corporate officials of a social responsibility other than to make as much money for their stockholders as possible.鈥�
Doing otherwise, Professor Friedman explains, is a 鈥渇undamentally subversive doctrine鈥� that suggests 鈥渃ollectivist ends can be attained without collectivist means.鈥� Corporate revenues and resources, and thus the money of customers and wages of workers, is taken without their consent to be used for causes they may or may not support. Doing so 鈥渆xtend[s] the scope of the political mechanism to every activity鈥� without the guardrails typical of a democracy.
As a public company, Twitter often focused on similar notions of 鈥渟ocial responsibility,鈥� with less attention paid to financial performance. A privately-owned Twitter ultimately ought to take the opposite tack: make as much money for shareholders鈥攊n this case, Mr. Musk鈥攁s possible. Only when businesses follow this dictum can civilization and democracy be truly preserved.
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