Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Moscow-Pyongyang cooperation: North Korea will likely send fire-support combat formations and drones to the Russian region of Kursk.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; North Korean rules of engagement: Pyongyang has reportedly ordered its soldiers to avoid being taken alive at all costs, meaning they often blow themselves up.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Battlefield update: The Russian military is pressing on in Velyka Novosilka, which may soon fall if Ukraine does not make a game-changing move.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Intelligence agencies clash: Ukrainian intelligence detained a Russian spy network collecting data about Ukraine鈥檚 F-16 air warfare assets.
1. Assessing North Korea鈥檚 Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
More details are emerging as North Korea continues its direct involvement in Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine.
One interesting aspect is forces鈥� rules of engagement. Open-source indicators reveal that Pyongyang has ordered its fighters to avoid being taken as prisoners of war at all costs. In many cases, North Korean troops have blown themselves up to . This strict discipline explains the limited number of North Korean troops who have been taken prisoner鈥攁nd the high number of North Korean casualties, which according to Ukrainian officials is near , enough to fill a brigade.
Tactical engagement visuals from the battlefield suggest that while the Korean People鈥檚 Army often makes mistakes while fighting under frequent drone strikes, its unit cohesion has been solid: Pyongyang鈥檚 troops have maintained their composure when exposed to Ukraine鈥檚 heaviest . Ukrainian troops who have engaged North Korean forces have said that Pyongyang鈥檚 fighters are far more disciplined than most of their Russian counterparts. The recently posted the diary of an elite North Korean fighter who was killed in action in the Russian region of Kursk. His writings reveal a brainwashed commitment to the Workers鈥� Party of North Korea and to leader Kim Jong Un, highlighting the strict indoctrination Pyongyang鈥檚 military enforces.
Ukrainian personnel North Korean troops鈥� marksmanship. Visuals of captured North Korean equipment suggest that the Kremlin has provided than it has given its own Russian servicemen. Nonetheless, uploads from the battlefield suggest that Ukraine鈥檚 first-person-view (FPV) drones have caught forces off guard, leading to mounting casualties at the hands of Ukrainian drone operators.
South Korean intelligence services have concluded that Pyongyang鈥檚 next move will likely involve sending loitering munitions to augment its , though it is unknown which systems. , North Korea has developed a loitering munitions baseline that resembles the Iran Shahed kamikaze drones that hit Ukraine nearly every day. Pyongyang is also drone warfare system.
General Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine鈥檚 Ministry of Defense, has assessed that Pyongyang will likely combat-deploy artillery and rocket troops to Kursk. Thus far KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, 170mm-class Koksan heavy artillery, and 240mm-class multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) to the Russian military. Previous editions of this report have presented open-source intelligence findings regarding these systems and concluded that North Korea would send fire-support troops to reinforce its current contingent in Kursk.
United States Defense Intelligence Agency assessments have emphasized North Korea鈥檚 tube artillery and rocket systems capabilities. Massed artillery and rocket salvos remain central to North Korea鈥檚 battle plan for a . Open-source intelligence recently detected North Korean civilian trucks with concealed 122mm-class rockets . These platforms could menace Ukrainian defenses in urban and semi-urban battlefields.
In a war driven by artillery, Pyongyang鈥檚 fire-support troops could pose serious risks to the Ukrainian military, which is already fighting North Korea鈥檚 elite light infantry units. This report will continue to assess North Korea鈥檚 military role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, especially in Kursk.
2. Battlefield Assessment
The tactical situation shifted in the Kremlin鈥檚 favor over the past week. Russia made gains in Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Despite conflicting reports from the area, it is clear that the Russian military has fought hard in Velyka Novosilka and has captured multiple Ukraine鈥檚 defensive lines. The fight for the town , but it is likely that Russia will soon capture it.
In Pokrovsk, the Russian military has maintained an offensive footing, with few signs emerging that the campaign there is anywhere near drawing to a close. In this theater, Russia its use of fiber-optic-cable-connected FPV drones against Ukrainian heavy armor. These drones are resilient against electronic warfare (EW), and Ukrainian FPV operators are attempting to engage and kinetically them.
Fighting continued in Kursk with high . In Kharkiv, the Russian military has been attempting to make the most of its bridgeheads . Nonetheless, no meaningful changes have occurred in the battlefield geometry in this area.
Ukraine also continued to launch long-range salvos deep into Russian territory. A and the Ryazan oil refinery are among Ukraine鈥檚 most recent . The Ukrainian Intelligence Service (SBU) also ran counterespionage operations against operating in Ukraine. Recently, SBU agents detained a group reported to belong to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) for spying on Ukraine鈥檚 F-16 combat aircraft.