Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Ukraine鈥檚 shrinking foothold in Kursk: Ukraine鈥檚 forces have withdrawn from Sudzha, increasing the likelihood of a complete Ukrainian retreat from Kursk. This would allow Moscow to redeploy troops to other flashpoints.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Russian progress in Ukraine slows: Ukrainian combat formations have stabilized the front lines near Pokrovsk following the appointment of General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead troops there.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Kyiv鈥檚 deep-strike campaign: Ukraine used long-range Neptune missiles to strike the Tuapse oil refinery hundreds of miles inside Russia.
1. Battlefield Assessment
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have withdrawn from Sudzha, a town in the Russian region of Kursk. Thus far no open-source intelligence has indicated that Russian or North Korean units have enveloped Ukrainian formations. Still, this makes sustaining a presence in Kursk even more difficult for Ukraine.
A joint offensive by North Korean and Russian combat formations repelled Ukraine鈥檚 incursion. Evidence shows that fighters from the former private military company also in the Russian offensive. As Russian and North Korean troops breached Ukraine鈥檚 lines of defense, Russian President Vladimir Putin for the Kursk region. After months of downplaying the significance of Ukraine鈥檚 incursion, the Kremlin capitalized on the moment to emphasize this operation as an important success.
Beyond being a defeat in the ongoing war for the narrative, losing Kursk could have three major consequences for Ukraine. First, with ceasefire negotiations looming, the loss would deprive Ukraine of precious diplomatic leverage in a territory swap. Second, removing Ukraine from Kursk could allow the Russian military to move the tens of thousands of troops it has fielded there to other fronts. Third, the loss of Kursk increases the likelihood that the Kremlin could invade Ukraine鈥檚 neighboring Sumy Oblast.
In a positive development for Kyiv, the Ukrainian military seems to have defended and stabilized the front lines in the battle-worn town of Pokrovsk following General Mykhailo Drapatyi to lead troops there. Nonetheless, Russian offensives in have made small tactical gains.
Toretsk also remains heavily contested, with Ukrainian and Russian combat formations . Ukraine faces a serious threat from Russian first-person-view drones equipped with fiber-optic cables, a threat the author witnessed firsthand on a recent 华体会 field . In another drone warfare development, has begun to use unmanned ground vehicles to deploy concertina wire.
In the air, Russia continues to batter Ukraine. Moscow has launched drone barrages 100 Shahed loitering munitions each, often followed by ballistic missile salvos. Russia鈥檚 high rate of drone usage suggests it has boosted production capacity at its Iran-supported drone plant in Tatarstan, a finding that Ukrainian officials confirmed during the author鈥檚 field tour.
2. Ukraine鈥檚 Deep-Strike Campaign Continues to Harm Russian Oil Revenues
On March 14 the Ukrainian military successfully hit the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia鈥檚 Krasnodar region, hundreds of miles from the Russia-Ukraine border. from the impact zone indicates large compound. Ukraine struck the refinery at least three times.
The incident marked another successful attack in a series of long-range Ukrainian salvos directed at Russia鈥檚 energy infrastructure, which is critical to the Russian economy. In the first few months of 2025, Kyiv disrupted at least of Russian refining capacity with air strikes.
To hit the refinery, Ukraine used long-range Neptune missiles鈥攖he land-attack variant of the anti-ship missile that sank the Russian Black Sea Fleet鈥檚 flagship Moskva. Early in the war, the Neptune was key in deterring Russia from staging an amphibious landing to capture the Ukrainian city of Odesa. Since then Kyiv has worked to modify the projectile to enhance its deep-strike operations.
The anti-ship version of the Neptune has a range of roughly 120 miles, but sources claim the long-range version can hit targets away. Both versions use mobile launchers to boost battlefield survivability. The new deep-strike variant鈥檚 increased operational range and highly destructive warhead are a vital boost to Ukraine鈥檚 conventional capabilities.