Below Senior Fellow Can Kasapo臒lu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Kursk counteroffensive: The Ukrainian military lost significant territory in the Russian region of Kursk, threatening to deprive Kyiv of key leverage in talks to end the war.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Moscow鈥檚 air war: Russia launched massive drone and missile attacks on Ukraine鈥檚 cities and energy infrastructure. Ukraine鈥檚 new Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft helped defend against the Kremlin鈥檚 strikes.
鈥� The importance of US assistance: Washington鈥檚 decision to halt intelligence sharing appears to have impeded Ukraine鈥檚 combat capabilities.
鈥�&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫;&苍产蝉辫; Recruitment woes: Ukraine launched a new recruitment program targeting 18-to-24-year-olds.
1. Battlefield Assessment
Last week the Ukrainian military lost substantial territory in the Kursk region of Russia. Russia鈥檚 counteroffensive forced Ukraine to withdraw from natural defensive barriers in the embattled region. The loss of Kursk would deprive Kyiv of key political leverage as the Trump administration pushes for talks to end the war.
North Korean forces played a significant tactical role, capturing important defensive positions on higher ground in Kurilovka. Previous editions of this report warned that large-scale Russian offensive actions with North Korean assistance would be formidable.
Since Russia breached Ukraine鈥檚 defenses, Kyiv鈥檚 forces have attempted a controlled withdrawal along the R-200 road. Russian and North Korean formations fought to disrupt this maneuver and envelop .
Military withdrawals can be just as demanding as offensive combat operations. Ukraine鈥檚 attempted withdrawal is no exception. It aims to secure its rear area and maintain layered fallback positions while conducting delaying actions and tactical counteroffensives to disguise the extent of its retreat. If Ukraine cannot pull off this difficult task, Russian and North Korean forces could envelop its combat formations. This would leave Sumy Oblast in northeast Ukraine militarily vulnerable.
Russia has established fire control over Ukraine鈥檚 logistics routes and lines of communication, making Ukraine鈥檚 challenge even more daunting. The Kremlin鈥檚 forces have been able to Ukraine鈥檚 efforts to move and regroup. The Russian military has employed long-range strike assets and heavy aerial bombs to destroy bridges as it rushes to disrupt Ukraine鈥檚 fallback routes.
While the situation in Kursk worsens, Ukraine has taken the offensive near Toretsk. Its forces have made tactical territorial gains there despite exposure to heavy strikes from . Pokrovsk also remains a flashpoint.
Both sides continue to make advances in drone-on-drone warfare. Ukraine has begun into its first-person-view drones to destroy other unmanned aerial vehicles. Meanwhile Russian aerial drones now Ukrainian unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs).
The Ukrainian military employs these UGVs in logistics roles to move supplies through artillery attacks and anti-tank minefields. Russia鈥檚 hunt for Ukraine鈥檚 logistics drones is the latest innovation in the ongoing move-countermove cycle of drone warfare.
2. Russia Launches Overwhelming Air Strikes
Last week Russian forces hit Ukraine with massive barrages of Shahed drones. These attacks aimed to soften Ukraine鈥檚 defenses for follow-on salvos of cruise missiles, North Korean and Russian ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles modified for land-attack roles, and Kalibr naval cruise missiles. Russia targeted Ukraine鈥檚 cities and energy infrastructure.
The that the Ukrainian Air Force recently received from France took part in the defensive aerial operations against the strikes. Ukraine鈥檚 F-16 combat aircraft also defended its skies.
The Russian attacks inflicted casualties and heavy damage on residential buildings in Poltava Oblast. Despite heavy Western sanctions, Russia possesses an abundant supply of Shahed drones and air-launched cruise missiles.
Unverified press reports indicate that Washington鈥檚 decision to pause intelligence sharing has impeded Ukraine鈥檚 ability to proliferate critical air strike warnings to its citizens. Other suggest that the United States has stopped sharing operational data to support Ukrainian attacks on Russian troops (but has continued to provide data for defensive operations). The same reports indicate that Starlink, a subsidiary of Elon Musk鈥檚 aerospace company SpaceX, continues to provide satellite internet services in Ukraine.
3. Ukraine Enlists Young Fighters amid Manpower Shortages
To replenish its thinning ranks, Ukraine鈥檚 Ministry of Defense has introduced a new model of voluntary military service. The recruitment program, dubbed Contract 18鈥�24, offers financial incentives and North Atlantic Treaty Organization鈥搒tandard military training to Ukrainians between 18 and 24 who are willing to enlist for one year. Soldiers who volunteer under this new force-generation framework will man the Ukrainian military鈥檚 .
Volunteers will be . Contracts offer one million Ukrainian hryvnia (just over $24,000), a zero-interest mortgage, and free medical care. The agreement also provides a one-year exemption from mobilization and the right to travel abroad following the completion of one year of service.